Forum Topics GMD GMD GMD valuation

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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

11-Aug-2024: Additional: I forgot MEK - Meeka Metals - I also own some of their shares - just a small speccy position because they are also currently project developers, but they have the most advanced project I can find in Australia at this point in time in terms of companies that are NOT currently producing any gold, but that WILL be producing gold soon. MEK are into gold and rare earths (REO) project development - and their projects are around WA -

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So they're a fair way from Leonora/Laverton and won't even vaguely interest Ral at GMD.

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Anyone who has been following the sector for a decade or more might remember Doray Minerals, and the Andy Well gold plant that GR Engineering (GNG) built for them up in the Murchison area of WA back in the day (just north of Meekatharra) - Doray had their first gold pour in August 2013 from their high-grade Wilber Lode deposit at the Andy Well Gold Project, and in late 2018, Doray Minerals announced the sale of its first operating gold mine Andy Well to Galane Australia, a subsidiary of Canadian gold miner Galane Gold, in a $10-million deal that was supposed to involve both cash and shares, after having suspended mining at Andy Well in November 2017. See here: https://www.australianmining.com.au/doray-minerals-to-sell-andy-well-gold-mine-to-galane-australia/ [08-Oct-2018]

The mine suspension in 2017 was driven by its declining production profile and profit margin, and further capital investment required to extend its mine life. The gold price was significantly lower then of course. At the time of the 2018 sale, Doray Minerals' MD Leigh Junk said, “Andy Well has been a terrific asset for Doray and its shareholders, and the key reason Doray was the ASX’s best-performing IPO of 2010. The successful discovery, start-up and operation of Andy Well delivered significant value to Doray. With the company’s successful establishment of Deflector as a profitable foundation from which to drive shareholder value, this transaction with Galane provides us with a well-structured exit from Andy Well and the opportunity for the project to prosper once again under new ownership.”

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That sale did not proceed for various reasons and then a subsequent sale process (initiated by WGX as potential acquirer) also fell through - see here: https://investorinsight.com.au/doray-minerals-strikes-15m-deal-to-sell-andy-well-gnaweeda-gold-projects-to-westgold-resources/ [24-Dec-2018] https://www.miningnews.net/m-a/news/1357692/andy-sale-falls [01-Mar-2019] - primarily because Silver Lake Resources (SLR) (yes, that mob again!) were bidding to buy all of Doray Minerals at the time to get hold of their Deflector mine. Westgold pulled out (of the Andy Well/Gnaweeda projects purchase agreement) after saying they were unable to conduct DD, presumably because of the SLR involvement with Doray at the time. The "merger" of SLR and Doray Minerals (which was really SLR acquiring Doray) went through in the first half of 2019. So Andy Well was then an SLR (Silver Lake Resources) asset, but still mothballed (since November 2017). See also: https://investorinsight.com.au/doray-shelves-andy-well-sale-says-merger-with-silver-lake-on-track/ [01-March-2019]

In December 2020, another sale was announced: Latitude (LCD) Acquires High‐Grade Andy Well Gold Project from Silver Lake Resources (SLR) [21-Dec-2020]. That sale completed in February 2021. Then on November 24th, 2021, Latitude Consolidated Limited changed its name to Meeka Gold Limited. In July 2022 Meeka Gold became Meeka Metals, likely because they had projects that were prospective for rare earths in the south of WA as well as their gold projects.

And now Meeka Metals is firing up that Andy Well mine again - here's an image from Meeka's current website:

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You can see it's the same plant and still has the Doray symbol on the silo. Gotta go now, back later...

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OK, I'm back - have added a couple more maps in there (above) that show where MEK's Andy Well (Murchison) project is - just north of Meekathara - hence the name of the company - Meeka Metals (formerly Meeka Gold). More on them here: https://strawman.com/reports/MEK/Bear77

So, yeah, this addition was just to say that I forgot to mention in that GMD (Genesis Minerals) valuation update this arvo that I also hold MEK shares (small position). And that's all in real life - here on SM I hold NST, GMD, RMS, EMR and CMM, plus a truly tiny position in PNR, which is just a trading stock for me now. Apart from PNR, CMM is the only one of those that I hold in my SM portfolio that I no longer hold in any real money portfolios. I like Capricorn Metals (CMM), but I see more upside in the others from here at this point. CMM has very good management, no doubt about that; they've performed phenomenally well! But they look like there's a fair bit of that priced in already (a superior management premium).

GMD on the other hand also have phenomenal management but they are only fully priced for what they are today, and I would argue NOT fully priced for what they will be in 5 years from now, which will be substantially bigger - and producing a LOT more gold p.a. So I don't think I have an argument to sell out of GMD here - but agree they are now more of a "Hold" than a "Buy", so I'm not adding more at this point at these levels, but I'm also not selling or trimming any of my GMD shares. It comes down to execution now, and if anybody can execute a strategic plan really, really well, it's Raleigh Finlayson at Genesis Minerals, just as he did so well at Saracen Minerals, so I certainly DO want to maintain exposure to Genesis (GMD) while they're in this 5-year plan execution phase.

MEK won't interest Ral, but there are some gold producers around Andy Well, the biggest one being Westgold (WGX):

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Source: 30 May 2024: Pathway to Production - DFS Summary Presentation [.pdf]

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So, yeah, that's why I've purchased a small position in that one in recent weeks. Higher risk, as developers always are, and I'd recommend a proven producer like GMD for those with a lower risk tolerance, but MEK is looking interesting to me right now.

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