Forum Topics JAN JAN Red flags

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

I have been very patient with Janison, a serial underperformer in my RL portfolio. My reasons for liking the company are well summarised in @jcmleng 's previous post.

However after reading through the FY24 annual report documents and presentations there are numerous disclosures that I find unsettling:

  • Despite ostensibly having a seasoned and well experienced board of directors, despite the business founder still being on the board, and despite the recruitment of a new CEO with "20 years spent in global education and assessment", the company has retained the Nous Group to advise on a new strategy. "In July 2024 a significant reshaping of the business was implemented to create capacity to invest in capability to drive long-term growth." Create a capacity to invest in capability??? This sounds like bullsh*t - I hoped for better communication from the new CEO.
  • There is a bit more detail in the full annual report: "More specifically, we have created two new senior enterprise sales positions and engaged external professionals to assist in building the foundation for growing our pipeline of deals and establishing the processes and support necessary for the best chance of success in winning new business." So they don't know how to sell the value proposition of their assessment platform despite having been trying to do so since inception, and need some more expensive consultants to tell them how to do it. It sounds like Janison lacks the skills internally to grow the business. If nothing else, I expect operating costs to swell in FY25 due to this dependency on external consultants. Let's hope that revenue grows to compensate.
  • The company has ceased working with Singapore Exam Board, allegedly this is an intentional choice because it required a lot of bespoke work, but this marks the end of a long term relationship and one that helped shape the current Insights platform. This is perhaps not a material loss - worth maybe $0.5 million in revenue pa.
  • Alarmingly, the much vaunted 5-year contract with the OECD to be the platform for delivering the PISA for Schools program has not been extended. Instead for FY25 onwards "ETS has been selected as the international digital delivery platform provider for the OECD’s PISA-based Test for Schools (PBTS) digital assessment through 2029 pending final signature. In this role, ETS will design, develop, and maintain an international digital delivery platform for the PBTS." (https://www.theewf.org/news/2024/ets-expands-its-longstanding-work-with-oecd-becoming-the-international-digital-delivery-platform-provider-for-pisa-based-test-for-schools-pbts-digital-assessment-through-2029). It sounds like ETS don't even have a delivery platform the PISA test, so Janison must have done something seriously wrong to lose the OECD contract to them. This represents a loss of at least $2.5m pa.
  • "In August 2024 a company-wide restructure was completed resulting in the loss of approximately 40 roles and an annualised savings of approximately $4 million – to be realised across Opex, Capex and Cost of Sales." Since they had 190 full time staff at the end of FY24, this means that 21% of the employees have been sacked.
  • "Acquisitions in the Assessments business over the past 3 years have proved challenging and not performed as initially expected."


Against the backdrop of a 5 year $45m contract win with the NSW Dept of Education, none of the above may be material from a financial perspective, but at the end of the day a business is a collection of people and I'm afraid these people no longer convince me that they deserve my support. So I'm out.

mushroompanda
Added 3 months ago

Catching up on the latest happenings before the "strategy update" call this morning. I really appreciate this post @lankypom, otherwise I wouldn't have caught that they lost PISA.

Awful disclosure. You'd think if it was one of the key pillars of their growth strategy, at least it would have been worth a slide in the presentation packs.

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Source: FY21 Results Presentation

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lankypom
Added 3 months ago

I had a quick squiz of the strategy presentation, even though I am no longer a shareholder, just to check that I have not missed any stunning insights from the new CEO.

I haven't. After paying a consultancy to work on a strategy for them, the best they could come up with was:

  • Invest more in the Insights platform, augmenting it with AI in some unspecified way to add more value / charge more money to existing customers
  • Find new customers in Australia in the public sector
  • Find new customers overseas in English -speaking countries

Wow! No targets, no specific plan of action. Totally underwhelming.

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jcmleng
Added 4 months ago

@lankypom , I hear you completely! Have not fully digested the results but at first glance, it didn't look great. Will definitely use your list of things to look out for as I work through the results.

  • The Singapore Exam Board development is troubling, not so much from a revenue perspective but the client loss
  • PISA - not surprised. That contract went nowhere really - I thought they had already lost it some time back
  • Assessments - it has been a hodge-podge of small businesses, just loosely coherent


I did not top up at 25c as I thought I would as I was sitting on the fence waiting for more news - that inaction has saved me a few dollars. I have not topped up at 20c either given the not great news.

What I am holding out for though, is to hear the new CEO Sujata, outline her strategy and game plan forward in the Investor Day that I think is sometime in Sep. She has good experience and credentials, she has been brought in specifically to address the half-dead state of play currently and she has skin in the game as she was required to buy into JAN to match her options, either at 225c or 27c. I hope she will make an impression which is decisive enough for me to make a call, either way.

I do believe that turnarounds work IF the right ingredients are in place, the key one being leadership - XRO, CAT, EOS are good examples for me. Will have to see if I can add JAN to this list soon ...

Disc: Held IRL

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lankypom
Added 4 months ago

Strategy update is scheduled for Tuesday 17th September 10:00 am.

Let's hope the new CEO comes up with something more credible than 'creating capacity to invest in capability'!

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