Forum Topics SPZ SPZ Financials - Full Year

Pinned straw:

Last edited 3 months ago

So SPZ is being spanked for it's drop in NPAT. It's fallen 13% at time of writing despite:

Increasing revenue 21% year on year.

Really good growth in sites.

Increasing free cash flow.

I am confident in the business so for me this is an opportunity to top up. I just have... Does the increase in costs and drop in NPAT reflect a lack of discipline? To me, it's the cost of a growing business and there will be up years and down years while the business grows. I would expect as the business matures it's larger footprint will smooth some of that out.

The key thing here is I don't see a new regulatory risk which would be a real orange flag.


All of that said, always keen for alternate views.

mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@GazD - I attended the call and was encouraged by the result.

I'm focused on other holdings this week, so it will be a while before I get to write up my notes, if others don't beat me to it.

But as proof of the pudding, I added to my RL holding on the result (+30%), and given the market reaction, I might go back for another bite, as it's -9% at time of writing.

Three quick reflections:

  • While UK is looking more benign from a regulatory risk perspective, I think portfolio concentration/regulation in the UK is a perennial issue. The CEO basically said that they clearly want a diversified business, but will invest where there is opportunity - and the UK continues to make great progress. However, he did say that the situation in the UK around the proposed changes to the parking code are looking positive, and that there is an aligned approach from industry - worth checking the exact wording if they post a recording
  • QLD - spoke of good discussion with the QLD Government/DTMR. In fact, he said the Department is supportive of the development of a code modelled on the UK code. The only issue is that the QLD Government is about to go into caretaker mode, and we'll probably see a repeat here of what happened over the weekend in the NT. So, insofar as getting the business running again in QLD relies upon a ministerial signoff, then I wouldn't hold our breath. (I'm not across the detail of what needs to happen.) However, I see a return in QLD as upside and not core to the thesis.
  • Clearly looking at US as a potential new market. Said there are about 40 states that are conducive to their model. Eyeing FL and TX. However, they will be disciplined, with a preference to go in small at first.


Overall, good evidence of capital discipline, deploying cash from operations into growing the business.

Held in RL (2.5%) and SM

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GazD
Added 3 months ago

Thanks @mikebrisy for the summary of the call and for your take! Much appreciated.

I have always liked Paul and feel like he’s a straightshooter.

The economics of the units smart parking installs and the short payback period I feel lend themselves to a land grab type approach and so personally I’m more than happy for them to defer profits to the future if this brings forward growth.


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Noddy74
Added 3 months ago

It was the Jekyll & Hyde of results for SPZ today - one of my larger holdings.  

If you opened their investor presentation you got Dr Jekyll with management kicking arse and taking names. Targets are being beaten, graphs are all bottom left to top right, debt is repaid, cash is flowing. It’s an orgy of success.

 But if you opened the Annual Report you got Mr Hyde. Profits are down, cash is down, the current ratio is down. You could be forgiven for thinking this company is growing itself into oblivion.

 Which of those two realities you accept is going to depend on a range of factors. It seems the market (at least initially) looked at it and saw Mr Hyde. It looked at the statutory result and got the heeby jeebies. It then went to the investor presentation and saw not only Adjusted EBITDA but also Adjusted FCF! At that point the market said “You’re taking the piss” and reacted accordingly.  @mikebrisy ,@GazD and some others went contrarian and saw Dr Jekyll. I’m in that camp too. Statutory results are important and they can’t be ignored but they’re also not gospel, and they’re not telling the real story here. 

 This is a classic case of investing for growth and doing it successfully. Sites managed continues to be the key metric and on that score they’re growing ever faster as they move into new regions and have more ways to win. If I was surprised at anything it was the lack of a new site target, with the current target of 1500 likely to be beaten well in advance of 31 Dec 2024 (which was brought forward from the original 30 Jun 2025 target). I’m sure they have their reasons and will release a new target at the AGM if not before. 

The U.S. rollout will be interesting. I feel like hastening slowly is the best strategy here. Treating each state as a mini-country is probably the best approach. These guys have bought some rope in rolling out a U.S. growth strategy but when it comes to the U.S. some rope is as much as you get.

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mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Noddy74 appreciate your perspective. You’ve summed up exactly what I saw, but didn’t articulate so completely. I’d marked it down as needing to come back to and understand the details, after the sugar rush of results.

I was OK on the adjusted EBITDA, because stat. is a few lines down ( not omitted like many others do!), so it was clear what they are doing. And the definition of FCF is also used by others, even though I don’t agree with it, and again in the voiceover they were clear.

So I saw enough to want to add … as I’ve marked this one out as wanting a much bigger position, as long as they keep executing. Today I was convinced they are.

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GazD
Added 3 months ago

Thanks @Rocket6 @Noddy74 @mikebrisy for your takes.

As happens in small cap world ended up nearly flat after getting to a little over 13% down at times. If we’re right this is an absolute gift for those who managed to get some…

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