It was the Jekyll & Hyde of results for SPZ today - one of my larger holdings.
If you opened their investor presentation you got Dr Jekyll with management kicking arse and taking names. Targets are being beaten, graphs are all bottom left to top right, debt is repaid, cash is flowing. It’s an orgy of success.
But if you opened the Annual Report you got Mr Hyde. Profits are down, cash is down, the current ratio is down. You could be forgiven for thinking this company is growing itself into oblivion.
Which of those two realities you accept is going to depend on a range of factors. It seems the market (at least initially) looked at it and saw Mr Hyde. It looked at the statutory result and got the heeby jeebies. It then went to the investor presentation and saw not only Adjusted EBITDA but also Adjusted FCF! At that point the market said “You’re taking the piss” and reacted accordingly. @mikebrisy ,@GazD and some others went contrarian and saw Dr Jekyll. I’m in that camp too. Statutory results are important and they can’t be ignored but they’re also not gospel, and they’re not telling the real story here.
This is a classic case of investing for growth and doing it successfully. Sites managed continues to be the key metric and on that score they’re growing ever faster as they move into new regions and have more ways to win. If I was surprised at anything it was the lack of a new site target, with the current target of 1500 likely to be beaten well in advance of 31 Dec 2024 (which was brought forward from the original 30 Jun 2025 target). I’m sure they have their reasons and will release a new target at the AGM if not before.
The U.S. rollout will be interesting. I feel like hastening slowly is the best strategy here. Treating each state as a mini-country is probably the best approach. These guys have bought some rope in rolling out a U.S. growth strategy but when it comes to the U.S. some rope is as much as you get.