IDP Education Limited

ASX:IEL

IDP Education Limited

ASX:IEL
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$11.49 (-0.6%)
Last close price
#46
Rank
22
Held by
33
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Reports (4) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics IEL IEL Morgans view

Pinned straw:
Rick
Last edited 4 months ago

I’ve just copied this note from Morgans here for future reference. It’s from @Jimmy’s News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 30 Aug 2024 15:03:56

0040 GMT - IDP Education gets a new bull at Morgans on the student-placement provider's ability to deliver sustained growth from fiscal 2026. Analyst Scott Murdoch raises his recommendation on the stock to add from hold, telling clients in a note that IDP's current fiscal year looks like being the low point for student flows due to uncertainty over visa regulations, but that the Australia-listed company looks uniquely placed to take market share. Murdoch expects earnings to fall 12% in fiscal 2025 but sees a 21% jump over the subsequent 12 months. Morgans raises its target price by 4.6% to A$18.20. Shares are up 1.4% at A$16.23. ([email protected])

My view

IDP Education is now our largest IRL holding. I’m prepared to be extremely patient with this business. I’m not really expecting huge upward share price movements for at least 12 months, but I won’t knock it back if it happens sooner. This is a quality business, a global leader in the field gaining market share in student placements at the expense of its competitors. I think patient investors will reap the rewards in a few years time. Keeping it in the bottom drawer for now.

Held IRL (11%, now our largest holding), SM (16.5%)
mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Rick - I agree that patience will be rewarded in the long run. However, it will be interesting to see how the market digests information over the next year.

For example, take Canada. According to my data from their Dept. of Immigration, Jan-June VIsas were 245k vs. 239k STLY, But Apr-Jun was 125k vs. 148k STLY, i.e., the effects of policy are only now starting to bite.

I wouldn't want to be an analyst covering $IEL at the moment. I mean, how do you even start to project what FY26 over FY25 looks like? And given the analysts' short term horizons, that's probably the more important number in arriving at their recommendations. Lot's of opportunity for mis-pricing.

Ultimately, if $IEL keeps taking share, then once macro-numbers stabilise, the growth will start showing through again and, the market being forward looking, will respond positively.

I see the next year as a time when macro- and micro- are in tension with each other. So, I'm just not going to look at the $IEL SP for a year or so!


Disc: Held in RL and SM

15
Solvetheriddle
Added 4 months ago

@Rick @mikebrisy tend to agree with both of you. usually, i am not that interested in consensus numbers, the ability to call one-year numbers better than analysts who have access and a lot more time is low. however, IEL forecasts for the 2025 and 2026 years are particularly interesting, i am interested to see where they are (not that anyone is going to tell me) because the variation here is potentially large and a possible opportunity. eg if the estimates are very low, I'd be prepared to take that on.

out of my holdings with ST issues i think this one holds the most promise!

just my opinions

dics held but can move up

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