Forum Topics BOT BOT ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

So $BOT announced today they are going to hold a "Commercial Day Webinar" on 17th September.

Apparently, the market values the statement "to provide a comprehensive update on its commercial launch plans and market insights for Sofdra™"  at $0.05 per share or $90m. Go figure.

(I'm not complaining, as I believe that once the market starts to get a 2-3 year view of the sales profile, there's plenty to more to come. However, the reaction to this "news" gives some insights into the potential choppiness of the ride ahead.)

Happy weekend all.

Disc: Held in RL (8.3%) and SM

NewbieHK
2 months ago

@mikebrisy i think it’s the little things within the release that helped add some colour and reinforce the potential. Some of those things were…

-Revenue up 500% from 100k to 600k (including net royalties from Sales in Japan). I think would excite them about them about the US potential.

-Confirming plenty of money in the bank to launch.

-update on the state of affairs.

-highlighting that even a modest penetration of the 3.7m actively looking for treatment (10m suffering) at the average market price of $7200/yr shows the revenue potential. Using that $7200 figure possibly suggests SOFDRA might launch in that price range. This will enable analysts to punch a figure of $600 a month into their models.

-that key sentence on page 21 - “Management have assumed a more than likely achieve of all the above hurdles”. This includes Tranche 7 the likelihood of 250m of revenue in a calendar year. (Most holders will know this seemed very conservative, as this would only represent 35,000 patients in a 12m period or less than 1% penetration).

From that 250m figure we can do some rough calculations. Assuming EBITDA of 60% = 150m and then 33% NPAT = 50m we get to ~2.5c (using 2B SOI). At a PE of 20,25,30,35,40 we achieve a valuation of 50,62.5,75,87.5,100c.

Largest Holding IRL and SM.


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mikebrisy
2 months ago

@NewbieHK all true. But not really news from my perspective. I do think the SP dial will move decisively in the direction you indicated as the sales begin to materialise next year.

Yes, $BOT chasing $PNV and $TNE hard for #1 spot in my RL portfolio, too.

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