Pinned straw:
@mikebrisy i think it’s the little things within the release that helped add some colour and reinforce the potential. Some of those things were…
-Revenue up 500% from 100k to 600k (including net royalties from Sales in Japan). I think would excite them about them about the US potential.
-Confirming plenty of money in the bank to launch.
-update on the state of affairs.
-highlighting that even a modest penetration of the 3.7m actively looking for treatment (10m suffering) at the average market price of $7200/yr shows the revenue potential. Using that $7200 figure possibly suggests SOFDRA might launch in that price range. This will enable analysts to punch a figure of $600 a month into their models.
-that key sentence on page 21 - “Management have assumed a more than likely achieve of all the above hurdles”. This includes Tranche 7 the likelihood of 250m of revenue in a calendar year. (Most holders will know this seemed very conservative, as this would only represent 35,000 patients in a 12m period or less than 1% penetration).
From that 250m figure we can do some rough calculations. Assuming EBITDA of 60% = 150m and then 33% NPAT = 50m we get to ~2.5c (using 2B SOI). At a PE of 20,25,30,35,40 we achieve a valuation of 50,62.5,75,87.5,100c.
Largest Holding IRL and SM.