It's your call @Bradbury but 3DP lost money again in the June quarter and have less than $3m in the bank (total available funding). They also reported negative cashflow again.

Sure, they won an important A$2.5m contract as reported on June 28th (US$1.6m), but they need to keep winning more of those or they will just have to keep raising capital again and again, further diluting shareholders and putting downward pressure on their own share price, particularly as their NTA is rapidly declining year-on-year as explained below.

Their share price went from 3 cps on June 20th to 7.4 cps on the July 15th on the back of that one contract win and the potential of what might follow, but the reality soon set in that there may well be no follow through - again.

3DP shareholders have seen this before - so down the SP went again - currently back below 5 cps and falling on days when the ASX200 and the All Ords are setting new all-time highs.

They actually made an intra-day high of 8.1 cps on July 15th, being 2.7 x their recent June 20th low of 3 cps (or a +170% gain in less than 4 weeks), but they've dropped away again since and resumed that downtrend.

I'm not a technical analyst, but I do at least recognise uptrends and downtrends, and 3DP are back in a downtrend right now.

Why? Because the real Bear case is they run out of funding options and close shop, or sell their tech to someone else and shareholders get screwed over.

The other possibility is that they call in the Administrators, and shareholders get nothing and their shares are worth zero. They don't have a serious debt problem, that's true, but current liabilities at June 30 exceeded their current assets again:

The had negative cashflow for the 4th quarter, so while they say they expect to be cashflow positive soon, it hasn't happened yet.

Here's the most worrying thing:

Their NTA/share reduced from 24 cps to 9 cps between June 30, 2023 and June 30, 2024. Think about that.

They lost 62.5% of their net tangible asset value during the most recent financial year while doing small capital raises. They went from 677.8m shares on issue (@ June 30, 2023) to 805.1m shares on issue @ June 30, 2024, and today. So the NTA reduction isn't just down to dilution from capital raises via issuing more shares. They must be selling assets or writing down the value of them (or both).

My point is that your BEAR case (worst case scenario) is 15% p.a. growth. That sounds like a fairly optimistic BULL case for 3DP to me. And even with 15% p.a. revenue growth, you don't expect them to be EBITDA positive until FY29.

I'd be heavily weighting my own "valuation" towards that Bear case of yours @Bradbury , even though I think it's likely overly optimistic, so a max of 1 cent per share, but to be honest I wouldn't touch them, and here's why:

Cash was up due to capital raises, receipts down, revenue down, receivables down, underlying (adjusted) EBITDA only $600K - Six Hundred Thousand Dollars, i.e. $0.6 million - better than the previous year's $4.7m loss, so still a $4.1 million loss reported.

Statutory numbers are worse:

Losses per share increased from 0.66 cps loss to 0.73 cps loss. They lost $5.2 million for FY24 compared to a $4.5m loss in FY23. They're going backwards, not forwards.

They've had negative ROE and negative EPS for a decade. Do we give them another decade to get it right because of one US$1.6m contract announced in June? Remember that US$1.6m (or around A$2.5m) is revenue, no word on whether it will be profitable - if they're trying to break into that sector then it might not be profitable because it's a step in the door that may lead to bigger and better things. But what if it doesn't?

We are all going to have different views on things, but if 3DP haven't been able to become profitable and stay profitable in a decade - and their NTA is declining rapidly (as shown above - in the middle of this post) - then surely the investment thesis was busted some time ago wasn't it?