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Added a month ago
#Financials

Mezzanie debt continues to be pending. 

This has been the case for a significant amount of time and brings into question the company's claims of great project economics. Interest rates are currently low however any hiccups in markets could derail this and see the project not reach completion.  One also has to wonder what the Mezzanine Debt providers dont see that IPEX bank did. 

Also the attempt to raise funds in Germany by selling half the project hints at the difficulties of the Mezzanine debt i would assume. Also convoluted and complex structures are generally a red flag. 

 

The wait continues.

 
Added 5 months ago
#Bull Case

ATC plan to be a pure play HPA co and build a 4.5tpa 4N HPA plant.

HPA is used in LEDs and Lithium Ion batteries so looking to capitalise on the growth of EVs and storgae etc. 

Market is about 30ktpa and expected CAGR of 20% to 2028 and be in deficit frm 2022.

Capital cost USD300m - 190m secured with IPEX bank with 170m at low rates. SMS the EPC contractor has committed to providing USD11m after debt close. Mac Bank mezzanie debt for US90m underway expected to close Q42019. US100m eq funding via sale of 49% of the project for US100m also underway.

SMS - German co provided fixed price lump sum turn key contrat and gurantee build and commissionig reducing execution risk.

10yr offtake with Mitsubishi for all production.

DFS NPV of US500m under long term price of US27/kg currently US40/kg. DFS under conservative metrics even for the plant.

Key Catalysts - close of the Mac Bank US90m should be Q42019 that will release the senior debt of US190m and SMS US11m and derisk prioject and allow full consturction and full pace in Q12020 and should push up share price.