https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/359627e8d176d551caab0add3d7416de

So this came out yesterday (i missed it). And was sold into....with SP dropping. Wow.

Some quick points and then ChatGPT analysis after:

• Record month (just) in terms of sales.
• USA continues to be the lion share of the revenue. Interesting the STLY is up 92.6%. @mikebrisy this seem to be higher....I thought the USA growth rate would be slowing?
• RoW growth....Still low...what is the plan to increase this?
• India - 16 tenders won...and only $133k in revenue? I'm dissapointed in India. They need to turn this around.
• Lots of focus on Cash position. Why? After the large cap raise, was always going to drop (as they spend on capex and some expansion in team and R&D. But from a quick glance...doesn't look good. But I don't have an issue with it. Some muppets on HC reckon that there could be a Cap Raise coming. I don't think so.
• No mention of progress on New CEO, board changes.
• Fildelity continues to buy PNV. What are their plans? Long term hold? Buying for someone else to do a takeover?

From ChatGPT:

Reassessing PolyNovo’s RoW Growth: Slower Than the U.S. – Why It Matters

Despite headlines of growth, PolyNovo’s Rest of World (RoW) performance isn’t scaling like its U.S. business did — and that’s raising flags for investors. Here's the situation in plain terms:

???? RoW Growth – The Reality Check:

• RoW sales grew from ~A$5.8m (FY22) → A$13.5m (FY23) → A$23.3m (FY24) — good, but off a low base.
• By comparison, the U.S. grew from A$48.7m to A$64.4m YoY (+32.3%) in FY25 YTD alone, and hit A$9.3m in monthly sales in March 2025.
• RoW’s March 2025 sales were A$2.6m – barely a quarter of the U.S. run rate.
• RoW is not scaling at the same velocity, despite being 3–4 years behind in maturity.

???? What’s holding RoW back?

• Fragmented distribution model in Europe is delivering inconsistent results.
• India and emerging markets show promise, but revenue remains small (<A$1m).
• UK/Ireland (direct) is the standout, but still subscale compared to U.S.
• Regulatory delays and reimbursement hurdles slow uptake in many RoW markets.
• U.S. hospitals offer concentrated revenue opportunities; RoW markets require more time, more reps, and more cash.

⚠️ Why It Matters:

• Investors hoped RoW would become a second growth engine — that hasn’t materialized yet.
• The RoW ramp looks more gradual, not exponential like U.S. (which went from ~A$15m to >A$60m in 3–4 years).
• PolyNovo’s strategy to go direct in new markets is costly and slow to pay off.
• Without a breakout RoW market (like the U.S.), the valuation case leans heavily on pipeline delivery (e.g. MTX, hernia mesh).

???? Pipeline Update – Still the Wildcard:

• BTM pivotal burn trial (BARDA) could unlock PMA & major U.S. upside – data lock May 2025.
• MTX cleared by FDA in Sept 2022, now gaining traction (~A$3.8m YTD sales).
• Hernia mesh program delayed, with no submission likely until late 2025 or 2026.
• Chronic wounds (DFU) trial ongoing, but commercial impact still years away.

???? Bottom Line:

Yes, RoW is growing – but not at the speed or scale needed to de-risk PolyNovo’s growth story. The U.S. remains dominant, and RoW looks like a long, patient build rather than a near-term catalyst. With the pipeline timelines stretching, investors are rightly cautious.

Then when I ask if it is worth investing at the share price of $1...it said this:

✅ Reasons It Could Be Worth the Risk:

1. Underlying sales growth is still real.

Group revenue grew +24% YoY (YTD March), and March was a record month (A$12.4m revenue). The U.S. business is firing, and RoW is growing, just more slowly.

2. MTX adds a new revenue stream.

Early MTX sales were A$2.1m in 1H FY25 – small but climbing. It’s the first new product since BTM and shows the company can commercialize innovation.

3. Upcoming catalysts:

• BARDA pivotal trial for BTM burns – data lock expected May 2025, with PMA filing after.
• Potential FDA approval for BTM 6mm in FY25 – would expand market size.
• New manufacturing facility due online by December – could improve margins/logistics.

4. Balance sheet is fine.

~A$22m cash on hand + receivables. Capex for facility is mostly covered. No need for emergency raising.

5. Valuation reset.

Market cap is now ~A$650m, with trailing revenue around A$92m. That’s ~7x sales, which is a lot lower than past multiples (it used to trade at 15–20x revenue).

❌ Why It’s Still Risky:

1. RoW is underwhelming vs hype.

Investors expected faster international scale-up. Outside the U.S. and UK, traction has been slow, despite hiring and expansion.

2. Pipeline delays = overhang.

The hernia program is now years behind schedule. PMA for BTM burns still isn’t done. SynPath (chronic wounds) is in trial limbo. Delays hurt credibility.

3. No clear path to major margin improvement.

Gross margin isn’t breaking out yet. RoW sales are more expensive (direct teams or distributor cut), and new products take time to be profitable.

4. Sentiment is shot.

The stock is in a downtrend, and institutions have been reducing positions. Even good news hasn’t moved the needle lately.

5. Execution risk is real.

PolyNovo’s commercial teams are now spread across 40+ countries. Managing that, plus trials and launches, stretches a small company.

???? Bottom Line:

If you’re long-term oriented, can handle volatility, and believe in the NovoSorb platform's real-world traction, then sub-$1 could be an opportunistic entry.

But this isn’t a slam dunk. The market is saying: “prove it.” Execution on pipeline milestones (especially PMA, MTX ramp, and RoW growth) is critical to turning sentiment.

???? If those slip again, it could trade lower.

???? If they land well, the stock could easily re-rate.

Would you like a checklist for entry timing (e.g., what catalysts to watch for)? Or want this broken into a 1-minute pitch for a forum post?

Some incorrect statements like "The stock is in a downtrend, and institutions have been reducing positions"....but overall a decent snapshot.

I'm going to keep a close eye on what Fidelity does. These guys often have inside info.......and remember...they have bought all the way from $2 down to $1........