Forum Topics FLC FLC Fluence Corp Ltd General Discussion
Sunkendrailor
Added 5 years ago

@Bear77 .. FLC looking prety good after today.. down another 7% currently

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

Yes - I can see they might look like rediculous value at around 20 cents per share, but their chart is truly horrible, and they are very exposed to China - who may well still be trying to punish Australia for daring to ask for an inquiry into the origins and early response to COVID-19. I have been out of FLC for a long time now, and haven't been following them very much. I also removed them from my Strawman.com scorecard some time ago because I saw little reason why their SE SP trajectory was going to suddenly change and head north again. I removed PET recently for much the same reasons. A small Australian company with too much invested in China at the wrong time. Other issues specific to FLC, in my opinion, include: 1. Most of the board and management have exposure via options rather than direct shares. Only their Chairman has a decent holding - 37.265 million shares. Their CEO/MD, Henry Charrabe, has 12.35 million options, but no shares. Two NEDs (non-executive directors) have half a million shares (currently worth only around $100K) and three directors (half of their 6-member board) hold no shares (just options), which includes Mr Charrabe. 2. The global adoption of their water-purification tech has been less than impressive. 3. There was a lot of hype in prior years, and it seems to me that the hype was entirely unjustified. 4. They are a small microcap company with a market cap of only around $130m, and they keep raising more money - so are regularly asking their shareholders to tip in more and more money, as their profitability timeline keeps getting pushed out further and further. They had less than $17m of cash at March 31, 2020. 5. Last month they said, "Despite the delay in receiving the payments from the Ivory Coast Project, the Company expects operating cashflow for Q2 2020 to converge towards cash-flow breakeven. The expected improvement in operating cash flow in Q2 2020 compares to a US$7.9 million operating cash OUTFLOW in Q1 2020, and reflects the ongoing focus on lowering overhead costs and strong cash collections." More positive spin, but little actual real progress, in my opinion. 6. I jumped on them in prior years as a momentum play, and, unfortunately, the momentum is all going the wrong way now, so I'm not interested. 7. I don't mind these sort of beaten-down stories if I trust the management based on their prior track record, and I really like the business model, and think they've got strong tailwinds both as an industry and as a business within that industry, but I'm not sure that those conditions exist here.

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Bear77
Added 5 years ago

Yeah, well, I'm not always right. That's for sure. So now that I've warned against buying them they'll probably triple or better. I hope so, for you anyway Sunkendrailor!

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 6 years ago

Volatile at the best of times but the market appears to have had a decisively negative response to the latest quarterly today.  My instinct is that it relates to what Fluence are claiming is a ‘postponement’ of payment instalments for its San Quintin, Mexico, project.

I don’t have the expertise to understand the capital arrangements fully.  Consequently I find it difficult to gauge the risk of non-payment and/or project collapse which would impact bottom line and undoubtedly delay or prevent profitability.  Anyone have any ideas on what we are facing here?

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JackJack
Added 6 years ago

When I look at Fluences stock history on my iPhone I can look back 10 years and I see that this stock used to be valued over $160!! Is his true? If so, why was it so high and why is it now so low? 

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Strawman
Added 6 years ago

Fluence was only formed in 2017 through the reverse takeover of RWL. The previous history represents a very different company and capital structure. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170505/pdf/43j1yh40vt1v7z.pdf

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DJthe1st
Added 7 years ago

Hi Andrew,

Have you been following FLC since your posts/valuation above? Perhaps not given you sold out, right? I might be wrong but from the apparent timeframes above, your recommendation and latest valuation were made prior to the release of FLC's 4C and Quarterly Report on 30.04.19. Not sure if you have perused them at all but, if so, do they change your views/valuation at all?

Cheers,

dj

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Strawman
Added 7 years ago

Hi DJ -- i havent been following that closely since i sold out (on 28th March, which was largely on valuation grounds). The business still seems to be on track to a positive operating profit, and if achieved I will probably take more of an interest again.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 7 years ago

Hey DJ, I’m also looking forward to the latest results by the end of this month (always seems closer to the end to with these smaller companies). Could be a good outcome , there was a 15% jump today on the back of no news that I could see - someone’s spider senses may have been tingling.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added 7 years ago

I’ve had to look that up, but on the face of it would make sense with Fluence’s presence in China. I’d say you are right on the money there.

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