Consensus community valuation
$0.320
Average Intrinsic Value
48.8%
Undervalued by
Contributing Members
Sort by:
Recent
Create your free Strawman account to view member valuations
#ASX Announcements
Added 4 weeks ago

Q4 2020 Highlights

  • Q4 2020 revenues of $23.5M, up 51% from Q3 & flat to Q4 2019
  • Q4 2020 operating expenses $8.4M, down 34% from Q4 2019
  • Positive Q4 operating cashflow of $33.4M
  • Ivory Coast payments of approx. $60M received on schedule
  • Cash balance $31.0 Mat 31 December 2020 up from $21.9 Mat prior year end
Read More
#ASX Announcements
Added 2 months ago

Ivory-Coast-Reaches-Key-Milestone,-Project-Now-Cash-Positive

Some good news ...still worries over China 

DISC: I have a small holding

View Attachment

Read More
#New MD/CEO & Game Plan
Last edited 3 months ago

16-Nov-2020:  Fluence Strategic Repositioning, Change in CEO

Fluence repositions strategy to focus on MABR and Smart Products Solutions, changes MD & CEO, and reaffirms guidance Summary

  • Strategic repositioning is designed to focus primarily on three (3) key segments:
    • MABR wastewater solutions in China and Southeast Asia;
    • NIROBOXTM desalination solutions in the Middle East and Southeast Asia; and
    • the Ivory Coast water treatment project
  • Continued development of strategic channel distribution partners and further improvement of operational efficiencies
  • Effective immediately, Richard Irving, Chairman, will also assume the role of CEO, replacing Henry Charrabé
  • 2020 guidance reaffirmed

Fluence Corporation Limited (ASX:FLC) has become a leader in the decentralized water, wastewater and reuse treatment markets through Smart Products Solutions, including MABR-based Aspiral™ and SUBRE as well as our NIROBOX™ technology. To further leverage and build on this success, Fluence is repositioning its global business to focus on these products in the most attractive market segments with the goal of achieving more rapid, consistent and profitable growth.

--- click on the link above for the full announcement ---

[I do NOT hold FLC shares.]

Read More
#New Work
Added 5 months ago
Read More
#FY20 H1 Results
Last edited 6 months ago

31-Aug-2020:  After Market Close:  Appendix 4D and Half Year Accounts   and   Half Yearly Report and Accounts   plus   H1 2020 Fluence Corporation Results Deck

The Fluence (FLC) Half Year (1st half of FY20) results have not yet been fully audited, so they're taking advantage of the recently announced ASIC relief titled “ASIC Corporations (Extended Reporting and Lodgement Deadlines—Listed Entities) Instrument 2020/451” dated 15 May 2020 and the corresponding ASX Class Waiver issued on 16 June 2020 titled “Extended Reporting and Lodgement Deadlines” to lodge its Half Year Accounts subject to audit review, and defer lodgement of the audit reviewed Half Year Accounts until no later than 30 September 2020.  I notice that ISX (iSignThis) did the same thing last week.

Fluence's H1 2020 unaudited numbers were:

  • Revenue from ordinary activities: Up 141.3% to US$57,373,000 (US$57.373m)
  • Income from ordinary activities after tax attributable to members: Up 109.9% to US$1,736,000 (US$1.736m)
  • Net income after tax (from ordinary activities) for the period attributable to owners of Fluence Corporation Limited: Up 111.6% to US$2,041,000 (US$2.041m)
  • Dividends (distributions): None declared, same as pcp
  • Net tangible asset per security as at 30 June 2020: $0.06 (6c) (December 2019: $0.05)

Fluence by the Numbers (from page 3 of the Results Deck):

  • 7,000+ Reference sites
  • 70+ Countries
  • 180+ MABR Installations
  • 110+ NIROBOXTM Desalination Systems
  • 350+ Employees
  • 150+ Engineers

H1 2020 Key Highlights (from page 4 of the Results Deck):

  • Keeping employees, partners and customers safe – adjusting to COVID-19 conditions
  • Operating revenue up 143% to $57.4m*
  • SG&A cost continued to decline, down 27% on H1 2019
  • $6.2m EBITDA
  • Recurring revenue up 18% to $3.9m from BOOT and O&M contracts
  • Smart Products Solution (SPS) revenue up 89% vs. H1 2019 to $10.6m
  • Achieved financial close of the Ivory Coast Project
  • Secured debt facility of $20m from Upwell Water
  • Positive NPAT of $1.7m
  • Cash flow positive in Q2 2020 (June Qtr), cash balance of $20.2m as at June 30, 2020
  • Backlog of $234m as at June 30, 2020

* = All numbers in presentation are USD (US$) if not otherwise stated.

--- click on the links above for more ---

[I'm not keen to hold China-facing smaller companies at this point in time, so FLC and PET (who reported last week - on the 26th) are two companies I am avoiding at the moment.]

Read More
#Bear Case
Last edited 8 months ago

08-July-2020:  I can see why FLC might look like rediculously good value at around 20 cents per share, but their chart is truly horrible, and they are very exposed to China - who may well still be trying to punish Australia for daring to ask for an inquiry into the origins and early response to COVID-19. I have been out of FLC for a long time now, and haven't been following them very much. I also removed them from my Strawman.com scorecard some time ago because I saw little reason why their SE SP trajectory was going to suddenly change and head north again. I removed PET recently for much the same reasons. A small Australian company with too much invested in China at the wrong time.

Other issues specific to FLC, in my opinion, include:

  1. Most of the board and management have exposure via options rather than direct shares. Only their Chairman has a decent holding - 37.265 million shares. Their CEO/MD, Henry Charrabe, has 12.35 million options, but no shares. Two NEDs (non-executive directors) have half a million shares (currently worth only around $100K) and three directors (half of their 6-member board) hold no shares (just options), which includes Mr Charrabe.
  2. The global adoption of their water-purification tech has been less than impressive.
  3. There was a lot of hype in prior years, and it seems to me that the hype was entirely unjustified.
  4. They are a small microcap company with a market cap of only around $130m, and they keep raising more money - so are regularly asking their shareholders to tip in more and more money, as their profitability timeline keeps getting pushed out further and further. They had less than $17m of cash at March 31, 2020.
  5. Last month they said, "Despite the delay in receiving the payments from the Ivory Coast Project, the Company expects operating cashflow for Q2 2020 to converge towards cash-flow breakeven. The expected improvement in operating cash flow in Q2 2020 compares to a US$7.9 million operating cash OUTFLOW in Q1 2020, and reflects the ongoing focus on lowering overhead costs and strong cash collections." More positive spin, but little actual real progress, in my opinion.
  6. I jumped on them in prior years as a momentum play, and, unfortunately, the momentum is all going the wrong way now, so I'm not interested.
  7. I don't mind these sort of beaten-down stories if I trust the management based on their prior track record, and I really like the business model, and think they've got strong tailwinds both as an industry and as a business within that industry, but I'm not sure that those conditions exist here.

Of course, 2 days later (on Friday 10th July, 2020) - they released this announcement:  Fluence Achieves Positive Quarterly Cashflow.  And rose +17.5%.

I think a number of my points do however remain valid.  On the other hand, this could be a positive inflection point for FLC.  Time will tell.

Read More