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Last edited 6 years ago
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#Contract wins
stale
Added 6 years ago

For what its worth, here is some analysis of recent contract win and valuation from Edison Investment Research. Note that they declare that "Fluence Corporation is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited". So the research may not be completely independent.

The award of a €165m (US$188m) contract to provide water treatment to Abidjan, the largest city in Ivory Coast, is transformative in our view. This turnkey project will supply 150,000m3/day of water to 4.7 million people and include a range of treatment solutions. The win establishes Fluence as a supplier of large, innovative solutions and leads us to double our FY20 adjusted EPS forecast to US$c3.8. Despite organic revenue growth in FY19 and FY20 of well over 50%, the share price implies an FY20 P/E of 7x.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/landmark-e165m-contract-win/23552/

#Financials
stale
Added 6 years ago

From the end of year update https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190131/pdf/4426tkqjpsnxjd.pdf

FLC report on calendar years. They assert they will be EBITDA positive by Q4 2019.

Also encouraging is that they will report on 3 key metrics - one of which is recurring revenue.

#Management
stale
Added 6 years ago

The 2017 annual report shows the shareholdings by Directors. See attached image

#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 7 years ago

Share price has declined from $1 to 40c because of missed earnings for FY 2017. Company says this is mostly a timing issue on project delivery.

Even with predicting $110M sales in 2018 (2x 2017), the business still won't be profitable. Recent half year report shows margin on top of cost of sales is only 22% - that's before administrative expenses.  Risks are whether the company has pricing power to lift margins, what the margins will be in future and the variability of sales. It appears most revenue comes from new installs rather than continued operations. So revenue will be lumpy.

I have no insight into the construction capacity of the company if it starts to win substantial orders.

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 7 years ago

Market size is enormous and Fluence are leaders. Last year received a global award for being leader in their market space.

Ackowledgement of water shortages is increasing and they projet 2/3 of world population to have water shortages by 2025. China has just announced $15B for rural water treatment. Fluence have established partners and channels in China. See investor pack reference in Strategy straw.

Fluence is result of merger of two other companies. This happened in 2017. Founders of those companies still involved.

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Last edited 7 years ago

FLC provide fast-to-deploy, decentralized, and packaged water and wastewater treatment solutions. They have installed systems in more than 70 countries.

Provide the middle market with local, sustainable, and fast-to-deploy water and wastewater treatment and reuse solutions.

See attached investor deck - I sourced this from https://www.fluencecorp.com/latest-ir-deck/ but cut down the number of slides to fit within upload limit.

 

View Attachment