https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/01/in-brief-technologyone-gentrack-northern-star/

Some details on the customer going for Kraken

I want to point out that legacy product Velocity is different to G2.0 and a past velocity customer (tas water or tas power?) have gone with other providers. Therefore my conclusion is the migration from velocity to g2.0 might not be straightforward.

Also I need to dig deeper into MEZ (meridian)

Is Kraken cracking open the A&NZ markets?

Shareholders in Gentrack Group ((GKT)) have experienced a volatile ride over the last year, with the early December share price high of $13 now firmly in the rearview mirror.

Wilsons, who remains positive on the stock, was keen to point out UK Octopus-owned Kraken had seemingly forced its way into the domestic market by scooping up one of Gentrack’s key customers.

Wilsons found the announcement disappointing (of course) and evidence, at the margin, that competition is rising for the smart meter operator. Gentrack reported an existing customer had removed it from the process to modernise that customer’s existing billing solution.

Red Energy, with around 600k customers and over 1m meter points, is thought to be the one that got away. Red Energy had been using a legacy version of Velocity (its billing platform) and had been a customer for over ten years.

Kraken also pulled in Meridian (NZ) over Gentrack after writing off their internal solution. This was the first win for the offshore competitor in the A&NZ business-to-business sector.

The analyst believes Kraken will continue to concentrate on developed markets and is operating an aggressive strategy to “do whatever it takes” to justify its valuation, which is being targeted to incentivise new capital, with the mooted sale by Octopus Energy at an estimated valuation of GBP10bn, implying a total group value of more than GBP15bn.

Gentrack, in comparison, is seeking to expand into the rest of the world, including Europe and Southeast Asia. Management reiterated FY25 guidance at the update.

Wilsons has a target price of $11.21, compared to the FNArena consensus target of $12.833, with three Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold-equivalent.

Held gtk ang org

Not sure why the near 10% jump on 28/3 to 10.55 but I'll take it!

I would have topped up at the lows but I have enough GTK already.

If the platform is claimed to be good as it is with significant momentum, why fund managers such as Milford, Anacacia, Australian Ethical and Regal are selling? And buying stuff like Opthea and Flight Centre.

Don't they have their own SMEs in their teams that look at these companies and try to understand the product? Or are they too concerned about financial metrics such as PE and EPS?

Just thinking out loud as I don't know about how these fund management businesses are organised.

[held]

Possibly good for Gentrack???

Eon Next pays out £14.5m for ‘unacceptable’ pre-payment meter billing failures

E.ON uses Kraken for their billing system which they have been using since 2021

But it seems the error has since got fixed:

It has also since updated its billing systems to resolve the issue and ensure final bills are sent to pre-payment meter customers, Ofgem said.

Held

Found this update from Intelligent Investor while doing a search

https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/recommendations/gentrack-quitting-a-winner/154082

They are speculating that Gentrack might acquire something in the US, but there was nothing I could find in the last conference call.

Unless there is something sinister such as hot air and no earnings (like mineral exploration or very early stage biotechs or tech companies), I think you should just let your baggers run?

Not planning on subscribing any time soon after the calls on PWH and MIN

[held]

Thought I'd do a quick update here.

A rare win after a very difficult period with IPD Group, PWR Holdings and Vysarn.

Gentrack really kept everything under wraps on their new business and kept everyone guessing in the last few months

# Revenue grew 25%. Excluding UK insolvencies, the underlying figure was nearly 50%

# EPS and EBITDA were flat but that may be due to vesting of LTI which I think is well deserved

# Wins in the Philippines and Saudi Arabia with NEOM

I was bracing for the worst when they did not hit the EPS number but my fears were unfounded.

I think everyone loved the revenue growth and the momentum into new regions from the call.

Those funds (AEF, Millford, Anacaia, Regal and Wilsons) must be spewing right now!

[held]

While Gentrack stays quiet on the bourse, they are quite busy in the news

Do a Google search of Gentrack and you will see a few deals and other news items in the last month

I admit though some of the deals "look" small.

I'll hold my hand up that I've been accumulating under 10 even if it "looks expensive" and there is "better value elsewhere".

[held]

Regal and WAM have been sellers recently

So maybe this is too expensive as alluded by many?

One way I see it is they are making a profit despite the 145x PER.

Will continue to hold for reasons I will go into later.

And I can't see anything I can buy right now that could be better value.

(Held)

Apart from the Index inclusion, this MS report last week could explain the run to $10

Like the phrase "channel checks" which was also used to recently push up the price of Lithium.

The report is really big and comprehensive so only posting some of it.

[held]

Cannacord Price target NZ $11.00 (from NZ $7.50) or AUD $10.20

Saving the best for last on the long weekend.

[held]

Apparently Jefferies thinks Gentrack should go higher even after the near 20% rally

The link is paywalled.

And another target from Goldman Sachs of NZD 10.55 (also paywalled)

I did see the content somewhere on the DJ morning notes but now can't find it (must be archived)

Just a few guides but take the targets with a grain of salt.

[held]

Analyst estimates are forecasting EPS 10 cps and 157m revenue (trading view)

Looks like Gentrack will beat this?

Market response looks positive.

Too bad I hesitated on the Friday sell down to add but was "expensive" even then.

Held

Doing a comparison on Tikr of a few software tech firms which looks like a really neat feature. The big red one in negative territory is Siteminder.

A bit of background for those that are unaware, Gentrak offers billing and software solutions for utilities and power companies that ties in with their enterprise systems (ie: ERP, CRM). It appears after sorting out their past issues as detailed in earlier straws things are kicking along.

Arguably GTK is targeting a slower growth and more bureaucratic market than Siteminder which still appears to be cashflow negative, but the financials are going in the right direction. And the incentives are all based on EPS and price performance.

The last price target I can find is from Cannacord @ $4.73 in June 2023. Below are excerpts from the old report

Note that 2023 Actual sales was 169m which is a big beat.

Somehow managed to buy a few on the dip today (26/4/2024)) down to 7.29 before it recovered to 7.56. Not sure what caused this huge intraday swing.

Seems expensive on a FCF basis compared to HSN which needs some digging.

[held]