While Gentrack stays quiet on the bourse, they are quite busy in the news

Do a Google search of Gentrack and you will see a few deals and other news items in the last month

I admit though some of the deals "look" small.

I'll hold my hand up that I've been accumulating under 10 even if it "looks expensive" and there is "better value elsewhere".

[held]

Regal and WAM have been sellers recently

So maybe this is too expensive as alluded by many?

One way I see it is they are making a profit despite the 145x PER.

Will continue to hold for reasons I will go into later.

And I can't see anything I can buy right now that could be better value.

(Held)

Apart from the Index inclusion, this MS report last week could explain the run to $10

Like the phrase "channel checks" which was also used to recently push up the price of Lithium.

The report is really big and comprehensive so only posting some of it.

[held]

Cannacord Price target NZ $11.00 (from NZ $7.50) or AUD $10.20

Saving the best for last on the long weekend.

[held]

FWIW, I was listening to this podcast yesterday from Intelligent investor:

https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/investment-news/stock-take-red-flags-and-stock-valuations/153564

I don't own either stock. I have been watching HSN a long time.

Intelligent Investor have apparently done very well with GTK and will continue to hold the stock. But they see better buying in HSN at the moment.

"So, the way I think of it is that Gentrack is trying to get to Hansen's size and yet, you're already paying Hansen's price for it. You're getting three times more for the same share price basically with Hansen, which unless you feel that Hansen is somehow doomed, which I don't think it is, because Gentrack's going to completely overtake the industry and every possible utility will be switching to it instead of Hansen, then there might be a case for favouring Gentrack over it. In fact, there certainly would be a case for favouring Gentrack. That doesn't seem to be the case, Hansen's still growing, Hansen still has an excellent set of staff, it's got a much more diversified revenue base and so is also much more stable because of the change in business or the different business model, so it's not as if it's - yeah, I think it's a bit of an ugly duckling at the moment because Gentrack's suddenly got all the glamour around it, but in terms of valuation, Hansen wins hands down in my opinion. "

Apparently Jefferies thinks Gentrack should go higher even after the near 20% rally

The link is paywalled.

And another target from Goldman Sachs of NZD 10.55 (also paywalled)

I did see the content somewhere on the DJ morning notes but now can't find it (must be archived)

Just a few guides but take the targets with a grain of salt.

[held]

Analyst estimates are forecasting EPS 10 cps and 157m revenue (trading view)

Looks like Gentrack will beat this?

Market response looks positive.

Too bad I hesitated on the Friday sell down to add but was "expensive" even then.

Held

Doing a comparison on Tikr of a few software tech firms which looks like a really neat feature. The big red one in negative territory is Siteminder.

A bit of background for those that are unaware, Gentrak offers billing and software solutions for utilities and power companies that ties in with their enterprise systems (ie: ERP, CRM). It appears after sorting out their past issues as detailed in earlier straws things are kicking along.

Arguably GTK is targeting a slower growth and more bureaucratic market than Siteminder which still appears to be cashflow negative, but the financials are going in the right direction. And the incentives are all based on EPS and price performance.

The last price target I can find is from Cannacord @ $4.73 in June 2023. Below are excerpts from the old report

Note that 2023 Actual sales was 169m which is a big beat.

Somehow managed to buy a few on the dip today (26/4/2024)) down to 7.29 before it recovered to 7.56. Not sure what caused this huge intraday swing.

Seems expensive on a FCF basis compared to HSN which needs some digging.

[held]

One I bought at a $1.20 two months ago and wish I had held and built a bigger position - now up close to 100%! Clear turnaround in what should be a high quality business. Still some risks but appear to be executing.

Shaw and Partenrs - Gentrack Group (GTK)

Rating: Buy | Risk: High | Price Target: $4.50. A high-quality growth stock on a sub 10x EBITDA multiple. Reiterate Buy.

Event: GTK has delivered an impressive FY22 result. While the beat and FY23/24 raise was welcome, what really caught Shaw’s attention, was management see double-digit growth persisting through FY27. This firmly positions GTK as a growth stock. Management have shown their hand, investors can now either view these forecasts as fanciful or start pricing the stock appropriately. With GTK trading on just 9x FY24 Cash EBITDA Shaw’s believe a massive re-rate is coming. Shaw’s increase their PT to $4.50 (was $2.90) and believe a multiple of 23x is more reasonable for GTK’s growth and margin profile. GTK is a top pick. Reiterate Buy.

Recommendation: Shaw’s reiterate their Buy rating and increase their PT to $4.50 (was $2.90). The key driver of their upgrade is higher medium-term cashflows. On Shaw’s forecasts, which are now in-line with guidance, GTK is trading on 9x FY24 Cash EBITDA multiple. Shaw’s PT implies 23x which Shaw’s believe is reasonable for GTK’s growth and margin profile through FY27.

Gentrack has been a value destroyer for shareholders over the past 5 years with the valuation (market cap) dropping from $650m to about $110m BUT there could be an argument that the market has overreacted to the downside

AND now the company has issued not only my favourite type of announcement but also the most powerful type of announcement there is

EARNINGS UPGRADE

Revenue $115m

EBITDA mid-to-high single digit

This could be the catalyst for a turnaround and an inflection point for Gentrack

By the way, back in 2018 when the market loved Gentrack (market cap of $650m) the company had $104.5m of revenue and EBITDA of $30m

SO if the company get get back some growth AND/OR grow their margins then there is a LOT of upside here.

Nice to see an earnings upgrade after years of falling earnings.

I have just started researching GTK so have not formed an opinion and don’t own any shares. My interest was piqued by just how far the company has fallen for what should be a relatively stable business – similar to Hansen Technologies. It is probably one of the most hated tech stocks and in a clear downtrend on the share price. There was a large cross trade today which could mean the big seller is out.

The difference between Hansen and GTK appears to be that GTK has usually served the smaller utility providers, who are of course more vulnerable to energy market fluctuations. In fact the UK has been a particular headwind due to government imposed price caps which look to be about to be reversed as numerous utilities enter bankruptcy including one of GTK’s large customers – Bulb. Bulb is looking to be sold and is in special administration with the government so this could be major hit to earnings near term. The other headwind was in the aviation sector which of course was hit by COVID impacting ‘Veovo’ product. The product also appears to have been recently revamped. These two headwinds appear on the verge of reversing.

Reading through many glassdoor reviews the issue has been the legacy and outdated tech stack which as @Strawman has pointed out in the past is what tech developers hate the most. This appears to being corrected under the new management team and indeed a recent ASX announcement they launched a next generation platform built on AWS – announcement here pdf (markitdigital.com).

NZ power company Mercury which is majority owned by the NZ government has already signed up as a customer and is migrating their customers across Gentrack partners with Mercury and launches g2.0 solution (itbrief.co.nz) One customer does not make a trend but it is promising.

Keen to know if anyone knows anymore on the company as it is exceptionally cheap if they can turn margins around and would be great to meet the CEO. 

Poor Gentrack, i havent checked in with it for a while but it's clearly not been doing well.

Shares are down ~80% since 2018, and EBITDA (operating profit) has dropped from $28m in FY18 to an expected $11m for the current FY20 (its financial year ends in September).

In today's ASX announcement, Gentrack said the second half was ahead of the first and that cash flow would be positive for the full year.

But they also said that increased costs and added competitive pressure would mean the revenue run rate for FY21 would be "well below" the H2 FY20 run rate, and that EBITDA would be closer to break even.

COVID is clearly having an impact and it seems industry conditions remain tough. There's a new CEO coming on board who will try and turn things around, but it looks like it could be a tough job.

Assuming around $100m in FY20 revenue, shares are on only 1.4 times that. Pretty cheap if they can revive margins. If not, and the top line remains stagnant, the current 12x EBITDA isn't cheap at all. 

Until things can be shown to improve, it's an avoid for me. But I do think there's a good business here, just don't have a good handle on the competive landscape and direction of the major profit drivers at this point in time.