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Last edited 2 months ago
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29.7% pa
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#Degenerate Trade
Added 2 months ago

Stock has been heavy. Thermal coal prices don't have the directionality I was expecting. The cash raised might not last as long as a result. News is consistent with how coal mining in QLD is too hard and expensive (arguably means the coal price is too low).

I put this bad trade idea down to me just being a bit retarded so taking the small L. Trading out and sticking to my knitting with gold.

#Degenerate Trade
Added 2 months ago

TER is a trade for degenerates like me as its a classic bottom of the cycle, high cost leverage opportunity.

Brief thesis is:

  • Ordinary thermal coal assets that don't really make money at the current coal price
  • Drove it to recently recap at close to 1 for 1 for $60m
  • Single holder taking just over half the raise via underwriting so free float remains tight and stock churn modest
  • Now has some buffer to wait out the cycle for longer thus giving optionality
  • Seems to be early potential emerging for cycle to start turning so operating leverage is likely skewed to upside from here


Recap doesn't stop it from going down if coal prices don't make a turn, slows the bleed hence the optionality.

Not for the faint of heart.