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#Strategy
Added 2 months ago

AAR announced its working with MMS on a JV to do a mining campaign on the Think Big deposit. This one is a smaller satellite deposit to the broader Mandilla development.

In the PFS, the deposit optimised to produce ~31-33koz which in this environment can generate ~100m in FCFs to be split up under the JV. The share to MMS is 30-50%, thus CFS to AAR could be $50-70m. This could make a big dent in the equity component of project funding.

This strategy is interesting as the takeaway is that the CFs from this deposit are worth more today than in the future in the sense that I suspect that the reduced dilution is worth more than the reduced NPV from the main development plan.

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#PFS
Last edited 6 months ago

PFS linked

Big report, big reading and big numbers. In line with expectations given the pre-disclosures made by the company leading into the release. Fairly consistent with my modelling resulting in no price change. Now to see if the market will re-rate the stock and prove my view the lassonde curve may be flattening in this environment.

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Valuation of $0.540
Added 6 months ago

Current (June 25): remains unchanged post PFS release given key metrics disclosed earlier and reflected in my modelling.

Old (May 25): $0.54/sh based on project NPV of $0.66/sh discounted for an additional 2.5yrs to ground breaking. Uses spot but see straw for the sensitivity.

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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

Was good to see a PFS progress update while going thru the quarterly.

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My only concern is the number of performance rights being converted and there are more coming up once the PFS is released. - ASX announcement 31 October 2023

Concerns aside, will the operator of St Ives take interest in AAR once the PFS is released?

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/ten-bagger-john-forwood-says-these-four-wa-gold-plays-are-ripe-for-the-picking/

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[held]


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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

First time I've seen a detailed scoping study and a plan to do a PFS from a gold micro in a long time

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64m market cap with 1.4m ounces.

It's gold but looking for some arb while gold is in the dumpster.

Lowell Resources Fund is a holder.

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