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Valuation of $3.50
stale
Added 3 years ago
Latest updates are at the bottom (scroll down). 01-June-2020: If we get Australian government stimulus targeted at the residential construction sector this week, as expected, that would be positive for ABC, and they need it, because the word is that new home construction applications or approvals are down by over 30% in the past couple of months, so it looked like the sector was in for a pretty difficult FY2021. As a major Australian concrete/cement producer and supplier, ADBRI (ABC) will also benefit from significant additional fixed-asset infrastructure spending, particularly transport infrastructure (roads, bridges, overpasses, etc.). They looked pretty cheap around $2/share in March. I'm thinking they're close to fair value at $3, and expensive at $4, but significant stimulus targeted at residential and/or commercial/infrastructure construction may result in some upside from here. Longer term, like 3 to 5 years, they are probably worth closer to $4, so I'll update my valuation from $3 to $3.50 to split the difference. Update: 01-Dec-2020: We still need more transport infrastructure spending from governments, however as one of Australia's largest cement/concrete producers and suppliers, I think ABC have enough tailwinds to see them get to $3.50 within the next 12 months. Therefore, I am going to leave my old $3.50 target price as is. I do not hold ABC shares.
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