ADT released a metallurgical update. new test works confirms ability to produce a separate copper con. Copper recovery is thus improved, but more important is payability which lifts to 90%+ from 30% in the SS. Au and Ag recoveries benefit as to payability due to material proportion of both being produced in the copper con. Still need to see how a third con stream impacts CAPEX and OPEX but overall should be accretive to the NPV of the project.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200121/pdf/44ddnj532hz0q9.pdf

If you believe ADT is on the cusp of proving a Tier 1 asset and regional play (subject to further land acquisition) then there is a reasonably high chance that ADT will be a takeover target. The chart attached, illustrates that Tier 1 assets get bid and bids at premium prices, even though the depressed part of a mining cycle. Should ADT progress the project and shows its Tier 1, a TO is much more likely than not and this could see an offer price with a handle of $4, $5 or $6. The company needs around another year to shore up a few aspects of the project and then they can then look for a compelling and fair offer. Another reason why I think this ends in a bid is because I don't think management really want to build and run the mine themselves. Anecdotes suggest its being fattened up for sale and a number of mid and large tier miners are showing strong interest.

Maiden resouce out for Rupice. I liked it, good response from the market. Looking out for detailed met work to back up claims for simple flow sheet, also holes to be punched in nearby targets showing similar geo flags to Rupice.

SFR spent the last week buying over 5m shares to aget to 11.3% ownership. Bought all on market meaniung they were 66% of the stock traded. ADT announced corporate advisors right after this. Whilst specualtive, I sense SFR is readying to make a move. They recently made a TO for MOD and have a nature of being aggressive dealmakers. Might need to see noerthern drill results, JORC and the scoping studdy first but SFR is staking its claim either way.

Write up from a manager, page 3 for ADT. Despite their bad 1yr result, the PM has a nose for these exploration plays. Thinks its going to be bigger and better than I ever thought.

http://www.paragonfunds.com.au/pdf/Paragon%20Fund%20-%202018-11.pdf

ADT is exploring long forgotten mining grounds in Bosnia. The Rupice and Veovaca are the main targets which are zinc biased polymetallic desposits. Associated metals include Lead, Gold, Silver, Copper. Veovaca is a lower grade open pit brownfield target (M+I level resource) that can be readily mined, however, the main game is the deliniation of Rupice. Rupice was drilled in the soviet era but never advanced past initial drilling. ADT is undertaking an explansive drilling program to define this target with modern exploration techniques. Initial drill results show exceptionally high grades at good widths, noting that grade and thickness seems to get better own plunge. Also note that down plunge near the tenement boarder, however, ADT has first right and is currently securing the surrounding tenements. Drilling to date has confirmed and exceeded historical results, partiuclarly in confirming consistent high precious metal grades. Rupice has the potential to be a high grade zinc biased deposit ranging from 2Mt to 10Mt in time. ADT, a recent IPO, has $8.5m of cash but is ramping up spend (4 rigs going now, drilling both Rupice and now Veovaca, inital testing of JB planned). Management own 34% and SFR.ASX owns 10% with rights to maintain its exposure in further raisings. Valuation is hard but if the tonnage is nearing 4Mt then the stock is worth $1+ using EV/resournce comps. Downside is obviously material if the deposit piches off in any diection showing it more limited than expected now.

SFR have shown their hand trying to swollow up the full $15m raising and get a blocking stake. Clear they don't want to give anyone else the scope to bid the company.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/adriatic-metals-launches-equity-raising-sandfire-up-stake-to-10pc-20181113-h17vhx