I first read a VIC write-up on AMA a while back which pitched it as the “Boyd-style roll-up” of car repair in Australia. For context, that just means buying lots of small repair shops, bundling them into one big group, and then making more money by cutting costs and getting better deals from insurers and suppliers. It worked brilliantly in North America with Boyd Group, which is why investors thought AMA could repeat it here.

Instead, AMA hit a wall: COVID lockdowns cut accident volumes, labour and parts costs spiked, and management turnover plus heavy debt made things worse. The share price collapsed after a couple of dilutive capital raises and big investors bailed out.

Fast forward to now and the story looks different. AMA has cleaned up the business by exiting non-core parts, reset key contracts (including a revised deal with Suncorp), refinanced with a cheaper $110m facility, and posted stronger numbers. FY25 EBITDA was up 38% to $62.6m on over $1bn in revenue. The company also swung to positive operating cash flow, cut its borrowing costs by 300–350bps, and even rejoined the ASX All Ords this year, which is a decent signal that things are stabilising.

Bull case: margins keep improving, debt is no longer a handbrake, and the stock could easily do well if sentiment improves.

Bear case: insurers still hold the power, the industry stays tough, and any slip on execution could see the equity grind lower again.

This is my first contribution on Strawman, so I’m very open to feedback. I’m still very much a beginner in the investing game.

Disclosure: I don’t hold this stock in real life or on SM.