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#ANZ Chart Review
Added a month ago

Discl: Not Held, No Intention of Holding, usual Entertainment-only caveats apply!

@tomsmithidg , as requested, quick comments on ANZ:

Interesting chart. I don't follow the banks, so no clue where banks are on the cycle. 

Zoomed out view first. Since ~Apr-May 2020, the price has run up about 14.00 to ~$41.00. 

267588d2554eb623b68148cceb04861776d86f.png

Zooming In now:

0a1d9441a2df4d2fab3ac998e541c132e11691.png

Bearish Head and Shoulders seems to have formed and today's drop takes the price right down to the neckline - thats why I needed to zoom out as the H&S in this shortened period did not quite make sense as there has been no steep climb to "justify it". But once you zoom out, above, the potential topping out feels quite possible.

  • There is also a huge gap in the price the day before the Head was formed - that usually signals the final exhaustion, before a major turn
  • Neckline is 34.01, which also happens to be close to the 50% retracement level and where it ended up today. It would be very interesting to see if this 34.00 level holds - this will inform on whether the price trend is up or down from here.
  • The price has also moved BELOW the 200 SMA - so this level is very, very interesting for me
  • Target drop from the neckline is to 27.00 - not saying it will, but it could, IF, the trend is now down
  • Nothing to stop it from bouncing off the neckline, moving upwards again and thus, invalidate the H&S pattern altogether

Have marked the support lines below, and the immediate resistance levels upwards

If the sentiment against banking is mostly negative, then downside is very much possible - that is what it feels like at a highly superficial level. If sentiment is decidedly positive, then upside is also possible ie, it bounces up from here and invalidate the H&S, thus cancelling the bearish reversal.