In July 2021, I released a research note on ASX:ARN, focusing on the flagship Ni-Cu-PGE Narndee Windimurra Complex. As the largest layered mafic-ultramafic complex in Australia (and the second-largest globally), massive potential exists for the discovery of a company making deposit with progress ongoing.
However, while investors have been focused on the nickel story, major progress is being made with ARN’s recently secured lithium and rubidium tenements (Wyemandoo & Niobe acquisition) – Lithium and Rubidium is thus the exclusive focus of this 2nd informational note. Understanding of rubidium and its potential applications is obscured by minimal public verifiable data and a lack of awareness by investors. It is thus possible that the rubidium opportunity is being overlooked by ASX investors.
RESEARCH NOTE: Aldoro Resources Limited (ASX: ARN) ‘Clean energy metals portfolio more than meets the eye: Uncovering Lithium and world-class Rubidium grades at Niobe’
After delving into the obscure world of rubidium, I've been encouraged by the emerging range of applications, increasing (albeit low) demand, extreme pricing and interest in this very soft, silvery-white metal in the alkali metal group. Here's the helicopter view of what I found:
- Despite its relative anonymity, rubidium compounds have a range of highly promising chemical & photo-electric applications due to its unique properties: Rb metal is easily vaporized and has a convenient spectral absorption range and Rb crystals have very active free electrons, thus it has useful electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity.
- Rubidium’s current global demand is estimated at circa 200 tonnes per annum (at +90% purity) sourced from an estimated 180,000 tons of ore (at 0.1% purity) per annum (Source: Mordor Intelligence Analysis). Although the rubidium market is very small in terms of volumes/tonnage and relatively hidden, the market is currently constrained by limited supply. This, combined with nascent (but fast-growing) applications, suggests significant growth and upside potential exists for Rb in the coming decades
- Based on existing uses of rubidium, the market is expected to experience growth of 22% through to 2026 (4%+ p.a.) (Source: Mordor Intelligence Analysis). This growth is primarily based on existing applications in biomedical research (use as a biomarker and blood-flow tracer for the detection of Coronary Heart Disease (CAD) and the detection of brain tumours), electronics and specialty glass (fibre) for enabling 4G and 5G networks due to the electrical conductivity properties of rubidium carbonate (Rb2CO3).
- Research suggests that it is possible that actual growth across the next decade in rubidium will exceed forecasts due to a plethora of important emerging applications. For example, Rb is currently being investigated at the R&D stage for use in rubidium-based thin-film solar cell materials and thermoelectric materials. Moreover, although Rubidium is not at present used to any great extent in battery technology, Rb-doped high-rate lithium battery cathode materials were recently found to increase the recharging capacity and the discharging speed of batteries
- In addition, rubidium and caesium ions are being studied as electrolyte additives for sodium-ion batteries. If sodium-ion batteries were to take market share from traditional lithium-ion batteries, the demand for Rb is likely to increase further due to improve ionic conductivity and stability in sodium-ion electrolyte. Rb, therefore, provides a hedge of sorts for covering both of the promising forms of battery compositions that are in existing use and in development stage respectively: lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries.
- Rubidium pricing is relatively obscure; however, market commentary suggests it has been rising and is significantly higher than other comparable elements. The market price of 99.75% rubidium carbonate, the most widely used rubidium chemical, was around $57 USD for 10 grams in 2019 (i.e. $5,700 USD per kilogram) (Source: International Lithium Corp). Remarkably, this is in the order of more than 100x higher than the price for Lithium or Potassium
My conclusion is that Rubidium’s position in 2021 may be akin to lithium over three decades ago. Although demand is currently minimal, the use of Rb in future energy systems (thin-film solar, sodium-ion batteries, nuclear) and other biomedical & electronic applications shows promise and consideration should be given by the industry today to the availability of rubidium resources to secure stable future supply. It is possible that the shift towards a new energy economy will continue to result in a massive increase in the number of new minerals and metals that are increasingly finding applications across multiple sectors: Rb may end up playing a pivotal role in this mix.