No matter what happens, geology does not change and perhaps the process workflow too.

Reactivating old straw from last year:

A link on Dubbo Rare Earths geology for anyone interested

http://portergeo.com.au/database/mineinfo.asp?mineid=mn1396

Long read, but it may explain some of the challenges faced in getting the mine up and running and the share price decline. Highlighting parts of interest.

Think if this deposit was monazite, then the situation at ASM would be totally different.

Adding to straw by @Hackofalltrades

That HC post is using the Nd spot price.

Need the NdFeBr spot price but it is hidden in secret away from prying eyes.

Maybe I will consider the free trial. There is pricing info for Nd at Tradingeconomics. at 555000 yuan/T

Back tot he subject, I get around 118987.01*600*0.6=42,835,323.6 AUD according to the article from USA Rare Earths about their production plans

https://www.evpulse.com/features/u-s-production-of-critical-rare-earth-elements-to-start-in-2024

The HC price is using the 1200 figure which is the upside case.

On that note, I wonder if ASM can source that much feedstock from Vietnam Rare Earths even with that MOU.

The other thing is I see some institutions coming in big around June while the selling from the Blackrock and State Street was reducing which is what prompted me to follow after some positive price action (see the bottom pic versus the top)

The last few days felt like there was a leaking ship somewhere with the positive price action.

[held]

ASM rallies to $1.400 (+18.6%) on no news with at one stage up 20%

Only significant news was an MOU with BSX and VTRE (Vietnam Rare Earths) on a collaboration agreement to create synergies between each other announced a few days ago

Decided to take a holding as the price levelled off before the quarterly last week and thinking the recent supply and offtake agreements might be a positive for a change (mentioned in previous straws).

Going against my usual rule of buying when the MD doesn't hold.

Overall a well timed trade but still lots of work to do.

[held]

Article in the AFR about ASM and customers/countries wanting the metal refining plant in their country instead of NSW/Dubbo

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/dubbo-digger-says-foreign-buyers-want-rare-earths-processed-offshore-20230515-p5d8i6

Rowena also made a reference to Dubbo's "unique" geology and thus would need special refining requirements that can't be fulfilled by other companies such as Illuka

Still on my watchlist but it is a pity that Rowena (MD/CEO) doesn't hold which makes me hesitant

Appears competitor companies have already signed agreements to secure supply to produce rare earth materials. This looks like a binding agreement with Setopia and a company in Vietnam. ASM only has some sort of non binding agreement

https://news.mt.co.kr/mtview.php?no=2023030814071835896&type=1 (put in google translate)

With ASM share price at 52 week lows and performance rights cancelled from not meeting milestones, I wonder if the CEO/MD will do an on-market buy.

VanEck appears to be reducing its holdings in ASM. This is the snapshot from factset dated 31/8/22 (from my University Student account)

There was another thread on hotcopper saying that VanEck has completely exited its position.

Maybe a good idea to wait before buying

[h]

First sale of Neodymium Praseodymium metal

Note the title says sale, but is actually a binding agreement for the sale of NDPr metal. I don't think actually anything has been produced yet. From the announcement, it looks like commissioning and ramp-up will be during now till Dec 2022:

ASMs korean subsidiary, KSM Metals Co., Ltd, has signed a binding agreement (Sales Agreement) for the sale of neodymium praseodymium metal produced at its Korean Metals Plant with Korean company NS World Co., Ltd (NS World).

The Sales Agreement provides for the sale and delivery of up to 10 tonnes of neodymium praseodymium metal ingot from September 2022 to December 2022. NS World intends to use this metal in the production of bonded magnets.

I suppose the risk would be if KSM can't produce the metal in that timeframe, then they will need to buy the metal on market. ASM must be fairly confident that they can produce and deliver the metal to NS World themselves during that timeframe.

Could be some upside from here if they can ramp up and start producing from the plant themselves.

[H]

ASM signs $US250m framework agreement with South Korean consortium for 20% in Dubbo Project and offtake from Korean Metals Plant

Still early days but in the right direction. This means Stage 1 has attracted more than 50% of funding including the debt financing from the EFA.

Have noticed a bit of slippage in the schedules regarding offtakes. From last presentation it should have occured earlier around the end of last quarter/ beginning this quarter. We are now in the middle of the year.

Maybe that's why the share price levelled off after the trading halt was lifted.

Regards to the NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) alloy offtake, the revenue comes up to be $126 million pa (2800*1000*45) for 10 years. The $45/kg of NdFeB comes from the scoping study announcement in March.

https://asmd.irmau.com/site/PDF/0d270d08-afbc-436d-adac-8075042290ce/SCOPINGSTUDYDEMONSTRATESFEASIBILITYOFMETALSPLANT

held

Article from ABC news about the Dubbo Rare earths project

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-05-25/critical-minerals-create-massive-potential-for-western-nsw/100150022

ASM is in a trading halt pending news on a material investment.

Export Finance Australia issues letter of support for the Dubbo Project

EFA (Export finance australia) has announced conditional finance support of $200m to the Dubbo project

However this is based on the following being satisfied:

• offtake agreements being signed that diversify critical material supply chains
• environmental and regulatory approvals
• approved engineering contractor and plan for project construction
• project funding
• meeting eligibility, credit and risk requirements that extend down to the customer

Nevertheless the market seems to like it and has rallied quite a bit after the announcement (although it was a bit delayed)

ASM boosts leadership team ahead of key decisions

A few new hires joined the company today. This resulted in a significant uplift in the share price shooting to an ATH of more than $7 before coming back to $6.92. Could this be due to short sellers/disgruntled investors not believing the story and selling ASM/ALK too early (although have to admit many investors waited decades for something to happen at Dubbo)?  All I know is there is envy for this stock for those that took the money after it was demerged from Alkane and I wish I still kept this in my Strawman Portfolio! Anyway congrats to anyone that are still holding this.

The new names include a few heavy hitters from the likes of South 32 and Woodside

Chief Operating Officer - Rowena Smit from South 32

Chief Financial Officer – Jason Clifton from Woodside

General Counsel - Julie Jones

President Asia - Frank Moon

Chief Culture Officer - Tess Lackovic

Chief Information Officer – Peter Simko

ASM’s Managing Director David Woodall said “the Company is building its capability as it moves towards key decisions on the Dubbo Project in NSW, and the proposed Korean Metals Plant”.It’s a great reflection on the direction ASM is heading that we have been able to attract such a high-calibre team to drive the business,” Mr.Woodall said.“ASM is at the beginning of an exciting new phase as it moves towards critical decisions on financing, offtake,and equity for its projects. Our new leadership team will execute our vision to become a global, independent, and integrated critical metals producer by 2025.

[not in my strawman portfolio but still present in my real one]

Indicative Timetable from the December 2020 Rare Earths Conference

Mine construction starting in 2nd half 2021 if all goes to plan.

(I still hold ASM and even topped up at $2, but it is not in my Strawman portfolio due to using the funds for the comp)