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Consensus community valuation
XXXXXX
Average Intrinsic Value
XXXXXX
Overvalued by
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Valuation of $0.021
Added 3 months ago

Lot of guessing work as the company will need to grow strongly in the future, high dilution etc. Assume three scenarios Bull, Base and Bear case Growth ranging from 25% - 8%. Net Margins Bullish case 15% down to 5%. Assumed share count grow to 940m. Discounted back to today and assigned probability of 25% chance for Bull, 50% for Base and 25% probability to the Bear Case. Arrived at valuation $0.021. The narrative of the story maybe much stronger than the numbers for now until it grows larger, personal opinion. Watching from sidelines for now.

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#Management Ownership
Added 3 months ago

Market Cap at $0.046 is $34.436M

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Management Bio’s

Luke Donnellan – Chairman and Non Executive Director

Luke is a former member of the Victorian Parliament. He was a Labor Party Member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2002 to 2022, representing Narre Warren North. Luke served as the Minister for Roads and Road Safety and Minister for Ports from December 2014 to 2018 and the Minister for Child Protection and the Minister for Disability, Ageing and Carers from December 2018 until October 2021.

Peter Borden – Independent Non Executive Director

Peter began his career as a Chartered Accountant with KPMG in Melbourne He joined Ventia in 2016 as Chief Commercial Officer, before moving to the role of Group Executive – Transport. Prior to this, Peter held several roles at Downer over more than 18 years including Executive General Manager – Commercial and Risk, Infrastructure Division and Chief Executive Officer, Rail Division.

Damian Smith – Co-CEO and Executive Director

Damian co-founded Asset Vision in 2011 and continues to guide the platform’s growth, steering both its technical direction and expanding market presence. With 25 years in the asset management technology space, he has successfully built and scaled businesses and brings a blend of entrepreneurial drive and real-world experience to the continuous evolution of the Asset Vision platform.

Lucas Murtagh – Co-CEO and Executive Director

Lucas led the acquisition of Asset Vision in 2020 and has played an integral role in its vision, strategy and branding since that time. Lucas is a career entrepreneur, founding Method Group Consulting which was a BRW Fast Starter in 2013 and subsequently acquired by RXP Services Ltd (ASX:RXP). Lucas has strong experience in ASX listed companies and capital markets.

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#Risks
Added 3 months ago

What they actually do?

Asset Vision, a SaaS platform for asset management and infrastructure maintenance.

·      Core customers: state government, councils, utilities, transport and facilities operators.

·      Product: Uses advanced analytics , AI and dashboards to manage and maintain infrastructure assets, plan investment, and deliver efficiencies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNF5UkLNIaM

Investment Case

Bullish factors

·      SaaS Model with high ARR growth

·      Strong contract wins with governments – Sticky revenue

·      Positive operating cash flows and debt-free balance sheet

·      Expanding into multiple infrastructure verticals (transport, utilities, ports.)


Risk/ Red Flags

·      Heavy reliance on a few major customers (50% of FY25 Revenue)

·      High share-based payment dilution

·      Small Scale: $5m revenue is tiny, any contract loss is material

·      Valuation risk – got assume high growth!!

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#Institutional Placement $0.03
stale
Added 4 years ago

Raise $2.35M (@0.03), directing to Asset Vision (remote asset management platform). Recently bought EagleSoft's AI asset capture technology. Some big clients include Vic Roads, NSW Roads & Maritime, John Holand, Transurban, a few councils.

Asset Vision (including EagleSoft’s AI asset capture technology) is developing an IAM platform aimed at revolutionising the way roads and assets are inspected and maintained, making for safer and more reliable journeys for our communities. As previously announced, Eaglesoft’s technology is already being trialled in Victoria’s northeast, helping to map and assess the condition of more than 4,000 kilometres of arterial roads and roadside assets.

https://youtu.be/jjF4gWm5cdc

Future First Technologies has two tech offerings: Asset Vision (mentioned above) plus Farmbuy (a online real estate listing company for farm properties - was getting some tailwinds as COVID seachange momentum increased, but how long will this last?)

Asset Vision sounds interesting though.


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