Straws are discrete research notes that relate to a particular aspect of the company. Grouped under #hashtags, they are ranked by votes.
A good Straw offers a clear and concise perspective on the company and its prospects.
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Overview Comment:
An extremely strong result due to high pearl prices that are up more than 100% from this time last year. Looking to slowly exit and take profits to remove the downside risk of falling pearl prices as I believe the value play of the original thesis has essentially played out.
General notes:
Positives:
Negatives:
Has the thesis been broken?
What are you expecting and what do you need to see over the next reporting season or generally into the future?
Atlas announced this week YTD sales of $26.1m after recent Kobe pearl auction. Average price per a pearl for the auction was around $113 and YTD average price per pearl was $102. This is basically 100% increase from the previous year's average. There is strong demand for pearls from Chinese and Japanese buyers driving the price increases. The hard part now is determining how long the is strong demand lasts for, is it a quick fad or an ongoing normal? Pearls take two years to produce so the market can't be flooded in the very short term with new stock. Atlas also noted in the announcement that the pearls sold are improving in quality but is still below long-term averages so there is another factor to the upside for Atlas.
Valuation:
Valuation is complicated by the increased prices and making a call as to the long-term prices. Expenses shouldn't be increasing at anywhere near the rate that pearls have so there is a lot of operating leverage. I am now estimating a NPAT of at least $20m for this FY, and if the $100+ average can be maintained then an NPAT of $25 is possible. My working thesis was a $4m FCF so current results are far better than expected.
My very simple base case valuation:
This assumes pearl prices are having a one-off price increase due to strong demand then this demand weakens.
Position thoughts:
I have previously trimmed about 1/3 of my position at 11c IRL. Will continue to hold as I wait and see where the pearl market goes from here. If the elevated prices for pearls remain for more than one year, there is significant upside still available. Thesis has well and truly played out already, but I still see the potential for more upside at this point in time that justifies continuing to hold.
In recent times I have been focusing on finding reasonably priced long term compounder companies rather than cheap value. Atlas has shown that I should continue to look for these cheap companies as a part of a multi-strategy approach. However, I need to buy these companies when there is an upgrade cycle/catalyst occurring and be a shorter term (few years) trade. In saying all that, I must acknowledge there has been a lot of luck with this one....
Disclosure: Held in IRL and Strawman
Overview Comment:
An unexpectedly very strong result from Atlas Pearls. However, future stator results are not expected to be maintained at this level. This result is well beyond what my thesis required. Thesis is playing out as expected. Mangement looking at opportunities to continue to grow the business, just need to make sure this isn't a spending spree. Great cash generation this FY. Still undervalued in my opinion.
General notes:
Positives:
Negatives:
Has the thesis been broken?
What are you expecting and what do you need to see over the next reporting season or generally into the future?
Expectations:
Questions to be answered:
Atlas Pearls has released a corporate update covering the following main points on developments:
Overview:
Atlas Pearls is a South Sea Pearl Farmer with 7 farms based in Indonesia. The Pearls are sold to trade and consumers. During COVID they pivoted to a new channel of sales through online direct to consumers while trade shows were not able to occur. This has created additional sales that have in recent times have enabled the company to operate on a profitable basis. This purchase is based on a value buy/bet with Atlas Pearls trading at very low single digit multiples, if current profitability can be maintained a high return should be expected in terms of dividend yield (if money is returned to shareholders). While the potential return appears very attractive, given the agricultural nature of the business it is not without high potential risk.
Main Thesis Summary:
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Negatives/Risks:
How I expect this will play out:
If things went wrong:
If things go right:
When to get out:
When the following KPIs indicate something might be wrong:
Recently this company anounced that it has repayed all of its loan with Boneyard Investments Pty Ltd. I've been following this company for a while and I am very much impressed.
Atlas Pearl has been struggling even before COVID. When the company was on the track to become profitable, the pandemic nearly killed the business. In just two years, not only the management lead the business out of debt, they also grow the company significantly. Although there is little room for innovation in pearl farming, the management has been working hard on improving sales channels to increase the revenue and bring down operational cost and the results are solid.
I just love to see a business keep refining its strategy step by step and eventually turns things around at a steady pace. Comparing to those companies claiming that their business model will be insanely profitable some time in the future and offerred you a valuation over $1b, Atlas Pearl is the kind of story I would much prefer.
The company is selling at a very attractive price right now. In terms of future growth, it's unlikely to see Atlas boost its profit by 40% annualy. After all, it's pearl farming. I do count on the management to keep growing this company in their own pace. Is pearl farming the future? Probably not. But still, there is a very good chance that people will be buying pearls 50 years from now and Atlas will survive nicely in that version of future.