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Valuation of $0.470
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Added 3 years ago
The AUL/WRM Merger Play: In early February WhiteRock Minerals (WRM) acquired Austar Gold (AUL) in a share for share transaction with the terms 0.78 WRM shares for every 1 AUL share. This news has seemingly been received with open arms by WRM holders, as they now have world class southern hemisphere tenements to explore resulting in year-round newsflow alongside their Alaska exploration season spanning May - August each year. Yet, following years of failed promises of shareholder value being unlocked by AUL management, AUL holders are quite sour at the premise, who could blame them. This has created an arbitrage opportunity: Currently, 1 share of AUL is trading at 35.5c with 1 share of WRM trading at 60c. Meaning if you buy $10,000 of AUL now, wait until June/July and if the deal is finalised your $10K AUL at 35.5c = 28,169 shares now turn into 21,871 WRM shares (0.78 WRM for every 1 AUL) which at its currently traded 60c = $13,183. In order for the transaction to go through, an AUL Shareholder vote must go through alongside other court hearing formalities. Why will AUL shareholders say yes to the deal? Crescat Capital own 9% of AUL as per last AR, they also own 13% of WRM, its in their best interest to nab a cheap yet world-class southern hemisphere package for year round newsflow. With Quinton Hennigh calling the acquisition a "Fantastic move, brilliant move, fully endorse it, that gives them something they can work on year round". Paul McNally, new AUL chairman as of Feb 3rd, owns 8.1% of AUL as per last AR, who is working closely with Matt Gill, WRM CEO, who has been a SHARED DIRECTOR BETWEEN THE COMPANIES for some time. I believe that this 17% of AUL SOI will vote in favor for the acquisition, reinforced by the following quote by Matt Gill in most recent Proactive Investors video: “I was on site earlier this week, working with the team, with the Austar chairman so we are already working as if that’s going to happen, both parties are very motivated”. Furthermore, AUL only have ~$300k cash in the bank, and WRM are working on the ground with Austar chairman who owns 8.1% of the voting registry, as if its a done deal? Major shareholders won't want to vote against the deal only to face mass dilution to unlock AUL tenement value via exploration. Why not use WRM cash to unlock the value on their tenements without dilution, gain exposure to this transformative Alaska exploration season and bury the hatchet? For these reasons, I strongly see this deal passing the required shareholder vote formalities -- this 31% discount is an arbitrage play. In my opinion, following the above due diligence, the risk of the merger falling through is very low. 1 AUL share = 1 WRM share x 0.78 AUL shares are currently worth = $0.60 x 0.78 = $0.468.
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