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Valuation of $0.640
stale
Added 3 years ago
Development and land banking isn't my exactly my area but I feel like the business is reasonably easy to understand so I'm happy to have a crack. AVJ buys land, develops it (sometimes just holds it) then sells it. AVJ is obviously exposed to the residential property market however given they turn over inventory regularly and have low gearing they aren't as exposed to downturns in the market as much as one might think. AVJ has had an NTA of around $1 for the last 5 years. Unlike a typical REIT or income producing property vehicle the NTA doesn't fluctuate with the market as much due to AVJ holding inventory at cost + capitalised expenses. Strong market conditions should come through in profit figures as opposed to increased NTA. Aside from giving a "wind up" scenario baseline figure the NTA isn't actually particularly helpful for doing a valuation as it doesn't tell me much about how much cash will end up in my pocket as an investor unless there was a wind up. AVJ have had very lacklustre margins for the past 5 years of between 3% and 9% on a post tax basis. That being said, the last few years seem to have to included some headwinds including Covid and a downturn in the market. There is decent upside from AVJ achieving more scale and an increasing in sales. The main downside is a downturn in the market. I'm given comfort that even a 20% share fall in the market would still see the current SP being backed by hard assets (keeping in mind AVJ is geared at 20%). Taking a simplistic view and applying a 12x multiple to the average profit for the past 5 years of $22 mil I gives me a market cap of $264 mil which is about the current SP. Doing a DCF is pointless as profits/cashflows are lumpy. Will value based on the above but think there could be upside if profits return to 17/18 levels. Strong pipeline was reported. Will watch closely going forward.
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