What AYA Does

Artrya (ASX: AYA) is a medical technology company developing AI software to detect and assess coronary artery disease from CT coronary angiography scans. Its Salix platform has three modules: Salix Coronary Anatomy (FDA and TGA cleared), Salix Coronary Plaque (FDA cleared in Aug 2025 and expected to be the main revenue driver (approx 70%)), and Salix Coronary Flow (still in development).

How They Make Money

The model is software-as-a-service with fees charged per scan. With FDA approvals for Anatomy and Plaque now achieved, the next steps are establishing reimbursement pathways and scaling hospital partnerships. A new Category I CPT code for AI plaque analysis is expected to take effect from January 2026, which would allow providers to bill payers directly and open the door for wider adoption.

Traction So Far

Artrya has signed its first US commercial agreement with Tanner Health, a five-year deal worth around US$0.6m, initially tied to the Anatomy module and with Plaque to be added now that clearance is in place. More integrations with US hospitals are in progress i would assume.

Market Size and Revenue Scenarios

Medicare data suggests around 119,000 CCTA scans were performed in 2022, with commercial insurers adding significantly more on top. If Artrya captures even a modest slice of this market and receives, say, US$150–300 per scan:

• 25,000 scans/year → US$3.8–7.5m revenue

• 50,000 scans/year → US$7.5–15m

• 100,000 scans/year → US$15–30m

Management

Chairman Bernie Ridgeway previously led Imdex (ASX: IMD) for nearly two decades, growing it from a small cap into a global mining technology business with revenue over A$270m and a market cap north of A$1bil. That track record shows he knows how to scale a niche technology globally. CEO John Konstantopoulos, who took over in July 2025, is tasked with driving US commercialisation and prior to AYA he was the Global Industry Leader for Electronics at IBM. John holds nearly 10% of the shares from what I could see.

Competition

The main competitors are HeartFlow, Cleerly, and Elucid, all of which also have AI plaque or flow offerings. This confirms there is a genuine market but also highlights how contested it is. Artrya’s edge is being entirely cloud-based, which avoids extra hardware and integrates directly into hospital workflows. Another potential advantage is speed: results can be produced within minutes, which is faster than some rivals that rely on more complex modelling and slower turnaround times. Whether this advantage translates into meaningful adoption will come down to accuracy, reimbursement, and ease of integration.

Bull Case

Artrya has cleared key nearly all it's regulatory hurdles, a new reimbursement code is on the horizon, and it has begun converting partnerships into commercial contracts (well one!). With strong management and a very large addressable market, scaling to hundreds of thousands of scans annually could translate into tens or even hundreds of millions in annual revenue.

Bear Case

The company is still pre-revenue and burning cash. It must prove hospitals will adopt at scale once reimbursement lands, and that its product can stand out against well-funded competitors. If adoption is slower than expected or pricing is pressured, further capital raises may be needed and the upside case would be delayed.

Held only in SM, I decided to buy some WTC in RL over this.

Saw your post@ Superfluous and agree this is an interesting one. At a high level, there is a large market for CCTA (Coronary Computed Tomography Angiogram) and its interpretation. In the US it’s a $US 4.4b market, and AYA has a relatively small market cap of around $170m.  

AYA have FDA approval for the “Coronary Anatomy Platform” software and have this month received FDA approval for the second Plaque Module. With the Coronary Flow module to be submitted to the FDA later in the year and approval expected in the first quarter of next CY.  

AYA's offering appears to be superior to the US competition, Heartflow and Cleerly.  AYA software providing an actionable report within 10 minutes and appears to integrate better with the patient workflow.

AYA have a foothold in the US (Cone Health, Tanner Health and N/E Georgia Health) and now a small revenue.   Appear to be doing the smart thing in nearly giving away the product in the first instance.

CEO John Konstantopoulos helped develop the software and has around 9% of the company.  Success almost wholly dependent on how they execute in the US.  Would be interested to know if any of the Straw-medicos have a view/experience in relation to AYA?  (Apparently the only current use in Australia has been at the Cardiac Center Wollongong). 

Found this interesting.

https://artrya.com/investor-calls-webcasts

Below are my skeletal journal notes for AYA.

DYOR - held in RL

Product

• Cloud-based AI analysis of CCTA scans in < 10 mins at point of care
• SOLIX Coronary Anatomy is the platform - every patient - USD50 revenue
• SOLIX Coronary Plaque = plaque report - 70% of patients - USD750 revenue
• SOLIX Coronary Flow = heart flow report - 35% of patients - USD 800 revenue

NOTE: This, imo, is an example of AI (machine learning actually - no such thing as artificial intelligence) migrating up the tech stack. This, imo, will be where investors will see the best returns over the cycle. Not GPUs or data centres...

FDA/CTP CAT codes

• Anatomy & Plaque FDA approved
• Flow in submission process
• CTP CAT 1 already in place: Platform USD325, Plaque - USD950, Flow USD1017

Current Adoption

• Tanner Health operational - SOLIX Plaque just FDA approved to revenue kicks on from here...
• Cone & NE Georgia in progress towards integration

Key differentiator

• Turns health providers' CCTA scans into profit centre (AYA charge less than reimbursement)
• PII stays locked in providers system
• Competitors require CCTA data to be sent to them for human analysis and charge more than reimbursement

TAM

• Current 3 commercial partners, Tanner, Cone & NE Georgia approx 14,000 scans pa
• SAPPHIRE study partners approx 400,000 scans pa
• 1.5 - 2m scans pa in USA - say 30% share = 500-700,000 tickets for AYA
• Platform (100% of patients): 500,000 x USD50 = USD 25m pa
• Plaque (70% of patients): 350,000 x USD750 = USD262.5m pa
• Flow (50% of patients): 175,000 x USD800 = USD140m pa
• Total USD427.5m pa = AUD650m pa (AUDUSD 0.6500)

M/ment skin in game

• Founder-led - Konstantopoulos 9%
• Barrington - 7.7%
• Other BOD - 3%
• Total: approx 20%

Earnings quality

• High when achieved - SaaS
• Should lead to high ROA which can be retained on the BS, reinvested to grow the footprint whilst increasing margins and ROA

Capital Structure

• SOI: 114m MC $200m Cash: $11m

Key Milestones

• FDA approval for flow - submission end CY2025 approval Mar 2025
• Firming up SAPPHIRE participants - each party will be announced when locked in
• Commercial go ahead for Cone & NE Georgia systems
• First sale of SOLIX Coronary Plaque
• Guidance for break-even beginning FY2027

Price Target

• AVG MC/revenue multiple for ASX listed SaaS stocks = 4-8 (say 6x)
• 6 x AUD650m = AUD3.9bn
• Allow 50% dilution = AUD3.9bn/150m = AUD26
• Time frame: 5+ years

Interested in fellow Straw people's thoughts on ARTRYA (ASX: AYA)

Company and Product

ARTRYA describe themselves as an AI-Driven Healthcare Tech Company - with a cloud based software solution that provides cardiovascular clinicians the ability to detect and diagnose patients with chest pain at the 'point of care'.

Their flagship product, the Salix Coronary Anatomy (SCA), is a breakthrough technology that can detect vulnerable plaque biomarkers from a CCTA (Coronary CT Angiography) scan within minutes.

Stage of Life-cycle

ARTRYA is a cash burning, pre-revenue micro-cap approaching key inflexion points, including the high likelihood of a capital raising either pre or post a 510(k) FDA regulatory clearance.

The Company has lodged a 2nd Q-submission recently (Jun 7th) to the FDA with an expected meeting within weeks, to gain final feedback prior to submitting for 510(k) regulatory clearance of their SCA product. FDA clearance is then expected sometime 2nd half 2024.

Notwithstanding this high risk status, if the product truly has a competitive advantage - and is accepted and integrated into large US Healthcare groups, then the scaleable nature of the software platform into a well established, and huge market looks interesting.

Target Market

ARTRYA are targeting the large US CCTA market (third of global market) where there is established medicare rebates of US$900 per CCTA scan. With a market of currently 4.4m scans pa. and growing with an ageing population.

Competitors and USP

There appears to be competitors with similar product offerings -> leading examples include Cleerly Health and Heartflow, however their solutions take between 24 - 48 hours (currently) to return a diagnosis to the clinician, with patient follow-up required.

Therefore the competitive advantage / point of difference for ARTRYA is the ability to provide analysis within 10-15 min, allowing the clinician to offer fast 'point of care' diagnosis and subsequent efficient triaging of patients.

This benefits patients through more immediate and informed care recommendations, and healthcare providers with improved productivity leading to increased revenue and reduced operating costs.

Market Status

ARTRYA has signed strategic agreements with three different US Hospital Healthcare groups who are integrating ARTRYA's software solution into their CCTA scanning systems, that will ultimately lead to commercial agreements with these groups once FDA clearance is achieved.

There has also been a 1 year commercial agreement reached in Australia with The Cardiac Centre NSW, who treat ~25,000 patients per year for heart disease - But from ARTRYA's ASX announcement under the commercial terms - "In this instance the revenue impact of this agreement is not considered material in value given the agreements short duration and size of the practice".

Business Model / Strategy Questions?

With the signing of 3 x major US Healthcare providers - there is clearly a recognised functional advantage for ARTRYA's software. These providers combined perform 30k CCTA scans pa. (< 1.0% of market)

However some important business model and strategic questions remain:

• Is the fast turnaround (10-15 mins) a genuine and sustainable point of difference in the med-long term vs. other players?

• If ARTRYA could capture say 5% of the US market (~220 K scans pa.) -> how much of the US$900 per scan rebate would they collect (what is their revenue model and potential revenue)?

• With a SAAS model, what margins could be expected on the revenues (60% - 80%)?

Perhaps a Strawman CEO meeting contender?



References (other than ASX announcements)

https://stockhead.com.au/health/fda-submission-looms-as-artryas-ai-platform-aims-to-capture-the-huge-cardio-diseases-market/

https://www.cbinsights.com/compare/artrya-vs-heartflow

https://www.cbinsights.com/compare/artrya-vs-cleerly

Disc: Not held in RL or SM

Risks

·      No Revenue, very recent IPO with very little business history (Artrya founded in 2018)

·      Competitive industry -Artrya could face competitors able to spend more on R&D and marketing etc.

·      Healthcare industry is highly regulated

Easy pass for us, until can prove it can earn revenue and scale.