I would not classify myself as an investor who is focussed on explorers; taking a punt on digging up buried treasure seems a bit crass. However, as explained in a previous straw (still on Strawman but now two years ‘stale’) a younger me had some history with this stock, so it has been on my radar since it listed.
I wrote a couple of straws on Antipa Minerals and added it to my Strawman portfolio at 1.5cps in October 2018. Doing a bit of due diligence and taking a fake position that doesn’t punish the hip pocket (but might hurt the ego) is a valuable thing. Articulating the reasons why you think something will have a greater value in the future than it does today is an important discipline.
At the time, my rough thesis was:
In the two and a half years since taking my Strawman position, the rough thesis has to an early degree begun playing out:
The market wasn’t ignorant to these outcomes and following some positive share prices movements earlier this year the company raised capital leaving it with a cash balance of ~$31 million and an appetite for drilling out their 100% owned tenements. Since taking my initial Strawman position the market cap of Antipa has risen from ~$35 million to more like ~$150 million (although you could arguably subtract $31 million cash from this).
As far as explorers go Antipa is not really a minnow any more. So, what is left for those punters who, unlike me, enjoy the search for buried treasure? I think the following is worth reflecting on:
In 2018 I put a price forecast up of ~12c without a lot of technical analysis. I’m more of a narrative investor! I updated this a year or so later with a price forecast of ~24c, still without any form of technical analysis. The narrative is all important in this one; happy to stick with ~24c and watch how the next 12 months plays out.
First straw here. Not a gold exploration spec lover but I am in on this. Initially purchased when Rio announced their Winu find and it was awfully close to Antipa's tenements. Antipa is now in the position of having three joint ventures - Rio Tinto, Newcrest and IGO minerals. This gives them around $150 m for exploration of the other prospective ore bodies in their wholly owned areas.
There have been some good drill results released recently from one JV but where this really has the potential is finding a sizeable economic mineral deposit on their wholly owned ground. This would put a rocket under the share price. No rockets if one of the JV come up with a good find though I suspect there will be decent gains if this occurs.
So far management have been transparent with the release of information in a timely manner. They have clearly articulated that the JV are to fund exploration on their own ground with the intention of becoming a producer. That may include using existing processing at Telfer or at Winu if that is developed (and it seems to be pushing ahead).
I hold for the LT on this.