Following the past FOMC, pre-OPEX rally in the US, and corresponding rally on the ASX, I think BEAR is a good medium term trade. Here is my Bull thesis or BEAR:

1) Inflation, through supply constraints, will be hard to contain, and increasing prices will severely hinder growth going into the second half of the year.

2) US Conference board consumer confidence Labor Differential peaked in January and is rolling over. The peak of this metric has preceded the last 9 cycle peaks, with an average S & P 500 drawdown of 35%.

3) US Household equity ownership peaked at 30% of net worth in late 2021. This peak in ownership has preceded the previous 19 cycle peaks. Average S & P 500 drawdown of 22%.

4) S & P 500 index real yield is currently -3.4% (nominal yield - inflation). The 6 previous times the real yield turned negative, it preceded an average S & P 500 drawdown of 41%.

5) Bond market - 30 year bond yield fell on todays announcement, and the yield curve flattened, 1/10Y yield curve is close to inversion. The bond market is telling us the global economy is slowing down.

6) Hawkish Fed. Although the Fed presented a soft landing narrative today, it is important to remember that a central bank has never tamed inflation without sending their economy into recession - NEVER.

My thesis is the US fed will continue to tighten until they break the US stock market & the ASX will follow suit. All the other data the Fed is watching, CPI and employment data, is telling them to tighten.