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#Management
stale
Added one year ago

Marketindex shows that the CEO has no holding which was noted in my other forum post "Stocks with no insider holdings"

However some of my other sources (Tikr/CapitalIQ) say the opposite.

I've now confirmed Mark Csar has over 1.6m shares from the annual report. Going on the record to correct this.

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Lesson: Always check other sources.

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Valuation of $0.150
stale
Added 2 years ago

Revising my valuation to account for a fall in the valuation of comparables (e.g. ARN)

Disclosure: No longer held.

**********************

I'm in.

$11.55 mill in cash, receivables and listed investments.

MC merely $22mill at 8c.

The Geko royalty largely covers quarterly expenses, so no need for future cap raises.

Multiple future drivers for share price appreciation with drilling results.

Right next to the ARN tenements (world-class Rb potential) and significantly greater scale.

Lithium play in a very hot Li market.

Proposed valuation is based on market comparables (i.e. ARN), for an EV of around $50m.

Lots to like here.

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#Base Valuation
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

If one looks to ARN as a comparable, I think BNR might find itself at a $50m base valuation sooner rather than later ($40m EV).

I think BNR deserves a premium valuation over ARN because of the cash and royalty position, the 10x sized land position surrounding Niobe (ARN's Rb & Li tenement) and the multiple lithium exploration opportunities identified at Ravensthorpe.

  • Bulletin has received a gross royalty entitlement of $3.48M for a net $2.40M in royalty payments from the Geko operation to date and received a royalty entitlement of $899,358 during the last quarter from the Geko gold mine - this has largely covered their operating expenses to date.
  • Cash, investments and receivables totalling $9.5M on hand at the end of the Sept 2021 quarter.
  • The Lake Rebecca Gold Project is approximately 150km east-north-east of Kalgoorlie, WA and comprises five granted Exploration Licences over a 575km2 area. Two nearby 1M+ oz gold deposits (Rebecca and LakeRoe).
  • Chifley Gold Project - 20 kms along strike of 1.4M oz Au Lake Roe Project, 50 kms from 1.1M oz Au Rebecca Project. No historical exploration on tenement in prospective areas.
  • Duketon North - Gold and nickel potential. Moolart Well 3 Mtpa gold mine 30km to south Olympia 0.5 Mt @ 1.63 % nickel deposit 30 km to north. Newly granted 176 km2 tenement.
  • The Ravensthorpe Lithium project comprises a 57km2 tenement located 12km southwest and along strike of galaxy Resources Limited’s Mt Cattlin Lithium Mine. Eastern Trend hosts spodumene-bearing pegmatites and remains lightly explored to date.
  • Bulletin holds investments in AOP (8.6M shares) and Auris Minerals Limited (2.7M shares) worth $3.31M at the end of the Sept quarter.
  • Top 20 Shareholders hold 54.73%.


With 277M shares on issue, a $50m MC ($40m EV) would equate to a base share price target of circa 18 cents. If company-making exploration results are achieved at the Ravensthorpe lithium project, this valuation target flies out the window and we are looking at a much more valuable company. But the latter scenario remains an if at this stage.

T.E.P.

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#Bull Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

I'm continuing to accumulate sub 8c, because of the following:

  • Holding nicely above the SMA50 and SMA200.
  • Poised for a breakout, with resistance at 9.5c and a rising support level.
  • EV of circa $10 million AUD.
  • Royalties covering quarterly cashflow.
  • Further lithium results incoming.
  • The initial spike was 2c to 8c, thus the breakout target of 9.5c + 6c = c. 15.5c.


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