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Valuation of $1.540
stale
Added 3 years ago
Updates below. My original price target for Beach (can't remember what it was now) was based on S&P/ASX-100 inclusion from 24th June 2019, plus having good Australian east-coast gas supply exposure. Then I raised it to $2.77 in December 2019 (see below), and then lowered it to $2.20 in June 2020 (see below) - and now I'm lowering it again (knocking 30% off for bad performance - and because I'm underwhelmed by their management in recent years). I can't see Beach going above $2 now unless they either get some M&A attention (a takeover offer) or start some more M&A action themselves - like takeover Cooper Energy or one of the other smaller players. Old Commentary follows - latest update is at the bottom... 17-Dec-2019 - upgraded PT to $2.77. It looks like Beach can get there. 16-June-2020: Post-Covid-19 Smash in Feb-April 2020, New PT = $2.20. Give them another 6 months. 16-Dec-2020: BPT got to $1.88 in those 6 months. I'll give them another 3 months - so until 16-Mar-2021. Price Target still $2.20, with a 1 year PT of $2.90 by 16-Dec-2021. 16-June-2021: Update: Lowering my BPT price target by 30% from $2.20 to $1.54. The market sees better value elsewhere at this point, and so do I. I have been out of Beach Energy for a few years now, preferring SXY and COE (I hold those two) for Australian east coast natural gas demand exposure. Beach have underperformed. So have Cooper Energy - due to their issues at the Orbost gas processing plant that is operated by APA but through which all of COE's Sole gas has to travel to get to their customers. Their production is ramping up - see here: https://www.oilandgastoday.com.au/sole-key-to-cooper-production-high/ ...but COE's share price certainly is not ramping up... Senex (SXY) has a lovely 12-month graph - all bottom left to top right, and I've recently trimmed my SXY position and rotated those funds into COE (in my superannuation portfolio) because COE look cheap here, and SXY do not. I'm really not following Beach any more - they've become too big and too many fundies are following them now - I prefer the smaller players who have less broker and fundie coverage. That's where the best market mispricing seems to occur. In my experience.
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#Waitsia Gas Stage 2 FID
stale
Added 4 years ago

23-Dec-2020:  Beach Energy (BPT):  Waitsia Gas Project Stage 2 Reaches FID

plus:  Woodside (WPL):  NWS Project Participants Execute Gas Processing Agreements

[I often hold BPT shares, although not at this point in time, however I am holding WPL shares currently.]

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#New Gas Discovery
stale
Added 4 years ago

10-Nov-2020:  Enterprise 1 Gas Discovery

Highlights

  • A new gas discovery in the Victorian Otway Basin at exploration well Enterprise 1
  • Preliminary net gas pay estimate of 115 metres in the Upper Waarre Formation
  • Sampling indicates a low CO2 gas composition
  • Well to be cased and suspended ahead of connection to the Otway Gas Plant

--- click on the link above for the full announcement ---

[I do often hold BPT shares, however not at this point in time.  I note BPT has moved up +13% (at 11:52am Sydney time) this morning on the back of this announcement - and the rise in the oil price overnight.]

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#Buys SXY's Cooper Basin Assets
stale
Added 4 years ago

03-Nov-2020:  Beach expands Cooper Basin portfolio

Also:  SXY: Senex announces sale of its Cooper Basin Assets

[I hold SXY shares.]  The Beach announcement wasn't available when I posted the Senex (SXY) straw a few minutes ago, but it is now.

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#Company Reports
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

22-Apr-2020:  Quarterly report for the period ended 31 March 2020

Q3 FY20 production increases 8% to 6.9 MMboe, continued growth in Western Flank oil

  • Western Flank oil production increased by a further 15% to 2.1 MMbbl, with gross operated Western Flank oil production averaging 22,400 BOPD through the quarter.
  • Q3 FY20 sales revenue decreased by 7% relative to the prior quarter, due to the declining oil price through the end of the period, partly offset by higher realised gas prices.

Beach ends quarter in net cash position; Black Watch-1 well completed

  • Beach had a net cash position of $80 million at 31st March 2020 with access to $530 million in liquidity.
  • The Black Watch-1 well in the Victorian Otway Basin has been completed after intersecting the target Warre C reservoir in-line with pre-drill expectations. The well is expected to be tied into the Otway Gas Plant in the June 2020 quarter.
  • As advised on 20 April 2020, subsequent to quarter end Beach has issued a termination notice to Diamond Offshore Inc in relation to the Ocean Onyx drill rig and is engaging in discussions to negotiate a new rig contract with Diamond; offshore drilling is now unlikely to commence until FY21.
  • Subsequent to quarter end, the Haselgrove-4 well was successfully side tracked. The well is being completed as a production well and is expected to be tied into the nearby Katnook gas facility.

Review of FY21 work program underway, FY20 guidance maintained

  • A review of proposed FY21 activities is underway, with Beach targeting a deferral of up to 30% of previously planned capital expenditure.
  • FY20 guidance is unchanged, with underlying EBITDA expected at the lower end of the current range.

--- click on link above for more ---

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#ASX Announcements
stale
Last edited 5 years ago
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