Company Report
Last edited 3 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#10
Performance (50m)
15.5% pa
Followed by
248
Straws
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#Analyst estimates
stale
Added 3 years ago

And people say Morningstar has no sense of humor...

78333a1cbd2513eb4c04a7dc5456500f94bd64.png

...photo just in of Morningstar doing their fair value estimates...

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...and BRN's 4C tracker updated for the December quarter.

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(By the way I'm not saying BRN won't one day actually be worth that - merely that Morningstar's FV estimate is allegedly a quantitative valuation - not technical - and I challenge anyone to show me the numbers currently support a $4b valuation).

#How dare I post a bear case!
stale
Added 4 years ago

Hey ag11,

I really respect the depth of research you have put into Brainchip BUT I can't help but notice that whenever anyone puts up a post about it that is in any way less than giddy you feel the need to immediately jump to its defence.  This is going to be a pretty boring forum if we're all in a circle holding hands singing Kum-By-Yah with one voice.  

The first observation I'd make is that at the time of writing BRN is 7th on Strawman's list of top companies so I kind of reject the premise of the argument that you're getting ganged up on that basis alone.  Second, if you invested when you started posting about it you're already miles ahead so light a cigar, pour a brandy, sit down on the rocking chair and pity those fundies, analysts, experts and retail investors like me who have missed the ride! 

In this case you've responded to a post sharing a link and summary of some stocks that featured on a Buy Hold Sell, including BRN, that are commonly discussed on Strawman.  I actually didn't give an opinion on BRN.  However, my opinion is that I couldn't tell a Nueromorphic chip from a Salt and Vinegar chip.  If I could I couldn't say that Nueromorphic computing will be THE winning technology.  If I could I couldn't say that Brainchip will be dominant force in that technology.  All of that is the reason that - for me - if I held it I would be selling it.  However, you have done the work, you've put in the research to the point that you're comfortable with risk-adjusted return to make the decision to invest and hold.  That's great - I hope you are right because if you are this thing will go off like a frog in a sock and you'll make a mint.  But this isn't a zero sum game - you and those like me who have chosen not to invest through ignorance can both be right.  Regardless of what the share price does from here I'm right not to invest because if I did it would just be a bet and even if BRN turned out to be a bet I won there would be enough losers to more than offset this.

The other thing I notice you said is that it isn't a recommendation.  You see that over on Hot Copper a lot and rarely on Strawman.  I think it's because on Strawman people get that what is posted doesn't take into account their financial situation, risk tolerance, investment style etc. without it needing to be said.  That's one of the things I like about Strawman.

Anyway, as I said I genuinely hope we are both right!

#Bear Case
stale
Added 4 years ago

Speaking of learning from everything and everyone I learnt a new analyst recommendation term.  In today's LiveWire Buy-Hold-Sell Marcus Burns described Brainchip (BRN) as a 'screaming sell'.  In contrast Chris Stott sounded almost bullish by describing it as merely 'definitely a sell'.  

They weren't having a bar of it being a Friday fun one either with EML Payments and Tesserent not getting a lot of love either.  For their homework they Chris brought in Maxitrans (which I've looked at before and think is close to fair value) and Marcus brought in Frontier Digital (whose sell off does look overdone, although I find their financials somewhat complicated).

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-fan-favourites-and-2-stocks-on-the-rise