Company Report
Last edited 2 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#208
Performance (2m)
2.1%
Followed by
480
Straws
Sort by:
Recent
Content is delayed by one month. Upgrade your membership to unlock all content. Click for membership options.
#Bear Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

I've only taken a brief look at Brainchip, so I don't really have too much value to add. It certainly has the potential to be revolutionary, but I feel the valuation has pulled too far ahead of progress, without any meaningful revenue or profits to hold up the foundations. As a story-stock, it is outside my investment realm, but I can definitely see the attraction and it obviously has drawn a massive following of retail investors. Sentiment will probably continue to be a big driver of the valuation in the short term until investors can value the company on expected cashflows. 

It is difficult to put a valuation on the stock given that it is speculative and that the time to market and the likelihood of the product being viable is unknown. Although it is difficult to estimate the magnitude of revenue or EBITDA that could be realistic, as a rough back of the envelope calculation, one could assume that BRN achieves $100M EBITDA in 5 years in a bull case scenario (just to put some numbers to an example). On a 30x EBITDA multiple to reflect the high growth industry that they operate in, you could arrive at a $3B valuation compared to $1B today, but those figures could be completely off the mark. It is also difficult to ascribe a percentage likelihood to that scenario versus the spectrum of alternatives (base case and bear case) and then discount that back to today's dollars. 

BRN is in the "Strawman Index" and there seems to be a lot of hype around it. Some people are pushing sky-high valuations but no one is justifying it with calculations, yet. The minority is claiming that BRN is ridiculously overvalued but fully admit, like me, that BRN is outside my circle of competence. I personally think the risks are weighted more heavily to the downside than to the upside at this stage, but I could be completely off the mark, and credit to those who have ridden it up successfully and been on the right side of the trend/momentum! 

From a charting perspective, there might be a lot of resistance to churn through from 65c up to $1, based on the large upper wick of the candle from the week of the 7th Sept 2020. At that point a lot of distribution took place. On the flip side, from a TA perspective, one could argue that the pattern being formed is somewhat similar to an ascending triangle with the resistance around 70c, which would be a bullish sign and sugest a breakout. Difficult one to pick either way. I'm certainly not buying in at today's price.

b9563d2c711e90772bed797b4da8b3408cead5.png