CCL is starting to look like one of those businesses the market keeps mispricing because it doesn’t fit neatly into any of the usual boxes. It’s not a bank, not a fintech, not a SaaS, not a processor in the Afterpay sense. It’s basically the plumbing behind half the payments infrastructure in Australia, now with Indue bolted on and Paymark about to land in NZ. The numbers are finally big enough that you can see the shape of it.
The HY26 result was clean. Underlying NPAT of $24.2m for the half, which is basically a ~$48–50m annual run‑rate before you even start adding in the acquisitions. Transaction volumes up 9%, NOI up 10%, NPAT margin creeping up. This is what a regulated, recurring‑revenue payments utility looks like when it’s actually run properly.
Indue only contributed $0.3m NPAT because they only owned it for one month. The real juice is in the synergies: $15–20m post‑tax, >25% EPS accretion, >20% ROIC. That’s not fantasy — that’s the cost base they’re stripping out over the next couple of years. None of that is in the run‑rate yet.
Then you’ve got Paymark. They’re paying $27m for a business doing ~1.5B transactions a year with all the major NZ banks as clients. The implied FY27 NPAT is about $5.4m (they paid ~5× earnings). It’s EPS accretive even after the switch upgrade costs. And again, this is infrastructure, not a startup. It’s already profitable, already scaled, already running.
Put it together and the pro‑forma earnings power is pretty obvious:
Base business: ~$48–50m NPAT
Indue synergies: ~$17.5m
Paymark NPAT: ~$5.4m
Call it $71–73m NPAT once everything is bedded in.
Now, what multiple do you put on that? This is where people get lazy and slap a bank multiple on it. But CCL isn’t a bank. It’s an ADI for regulatory reasons, but the economics are payments infrastructure. Look at global comps: FIS, Fiserv, Euronet, NZX, ASX — they all trade 14–18× earnings because the revenue is sticky, regulated, and grows with transaction volumes, not headcount.
Even if you haircut it because it’s Australian and smaller, you’re still looking at 14–16× forward earnings without stretching.
On ~200m shares post‑raise, that gives you:
12× = $4.26
14× = ~$5.00
16× = ~$5.80
So the raise at $4.00 is cheap. Not “maybe cheap”, not “if everything goes right” cheap — just straight cheap relative to the earnings power that’s already visible in the numbers.
CCL isn’t a story stock. It’s not going to double because someone tweeted about it. It’s the kind of thing that grinds higher as the market slowly realises it’s basically a regulated payments utility compounding at mid‑teens with two acquisitions that actually make sense.
If you want a speculative angle, this isn’t it. If you want a clean, boring, high‑ROIC compounder the market hasn’t woken up to yet, this is starting to look like one.
DISC: holding IRL & SM participating in the SSP