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Valuation of $0.470
stale
Added 5 years ago
Updated post PFS release. NPV of $0.47 using 20% discount rate with production of 8ktpa in 2023. The NPV factors in ~200% dilution from here (~USD69m of WC & project finance). If you can make 400%+ with that kind of dilution then that should prove a compelling investment proposition. Under the high case in the PFS, 10ktpa, NPV on same metrics is $0.54. I note that I use a HPA price of USD30kt as that is what I understand the be the current clearing rate in this very opaque market. I assume a LOM USD/AUD rate of 0.75. EV/EBITDA can be used for a company like this as it effectively is becoming a chemical company (steady production, pricing). FY23 EV/EBITDA, assuming 12x multiple (market average) and 20% discounting, valuation is a big $1.32. SoTP would be $0.89. Juicy but I won't use that as my target.
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