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Last edited 5 years ago
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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

The most comprehensive overview and investment case for this company can be found in a piece by Harley Grosser, with the assistance of @BkrDzn, over at Livewire: CarbonXT - Rapid Growth & Inflection Point. I recommend reading this first before continuing.

There's a few things I like about the business:

  • The activated carbon (AC) pellet business has grown from zero to $9m in revenue in 2 years, and is now half of the company's revenue. There is strong underlying demand for the product.
  • The value proposition for both AC powder and pellets can be articulated. It's non-brominated, which leads to less corrosion of plant equipment and issues with wastewater discharge. It's also manufactured in the US which creates more certainty for US customers regarding supply and avoids trade war tariff issues.
  • The non-bromine IP is a patented technology which the company has access to. There appears to be no competing products in this space with the same level of efficency.
  • It's closer to cashflow positive than the statutory full year result suggests. Growing pains in the 1H of FY19 led to a large hit to gross margin, but this has largely been resolved in the 2nd half as they posted a NPAT of around -$1.7m. With the fast rate of growth, I'm going to cut the company some slack here. The guided 31 - 58% revenue growth for FY20, should see the company in cashflow neutral/positive territory by financial year's end.
  • It's been sub-scale up until this stage. Continuing growth in the top line, should see a larger percentage fall to the bottom line.