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#Exuberance
stale
Added 4 years ago

Some amazing volatility in recent days. Most of this seems not to be based on any real data but some excitement around potential of the YOZO/BNPL space. Who knows if they will get any traction here or not. 
I took the opportunity to sell 60% at .11 for a return of >5x. 
If 4c is fantastic I could easily regret this, but am happy to take the win and reduce to a more sensible 2% of RL portfolio. 

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#ASX Announcement 23/2/21
stale
Added 4 years ago

Credit Intelligence commences YOZO Pay BNPL activities Highlights

  • CI1’s unique BNPL service launched for the SME market leveraging the AI engine developed in collaboration with UTS Sydney offering borrowers a range of proprietary features has commenced lending activities to SMEs
  •  YOZO Pay BNPL provides SME borrowers a line of credit facility with more flexible repayment frequency options where costs are only occurred on facility drawdowns
  •  Through the AI engine YOZO Pay BNPL offers same day loan approvals and automatic borrower limit changes based on repayment histories with minimal human interaction required in the process
  •  YOZO Pay finance is provided on business revenues without the need for property collateral

View Attachment

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#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 4 years ago

strange times are these!

it would seem a well followed twitter poster (with ~10k followers) has made positive noises about CI1, and a few others to boot.

SP was over 10c at its high representing ~300% intraday gain. I was asleep.

It's difficult to come up with a rational explanation.

Most likely represents a sign of the (Robinhood) times. Possibly, a leaky ship pending the upcoming 1/2 yearly.

Honestly, I would have closed out at 10c had I been aware. Have a sell for 1/2 holding at 9.5c.

Having similar thoughts about my 3DP holding.

Greed/fear/greed/fear.

Oh man, I should have bought more bitcoin etc...

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#upcoming 4c - drum roll......
stale
Added 4 years ago

recently has had a bit of surge in SP related to the acquisition of YOZO. The idea being that they can now identify and target all those millenials who have gone into debt on the BNPL platforms.

Sounds pretty reasonable in theory, but extremely light on details. Execution risk is ...high.

More important for me is how the next 4c comes in. Has all the turmoil in HK translated into increased profit? Are we still going to get a divvy?

Have the Singapore purchases turned out to be consistent earners or are we looking at a nasty surprise once those businesses have been bedded down and the books opened to proper scrutiny?

DISC: hold in RL, and against my usual rules have a 5% holding in a high risk, non-AU domiciled speccy (outside of super)

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Valuation of $0.050
stale
Added 4 years ago
As the HK and Singapore business environment deteriorates things look better and better for this company. Has a relatively fixed cost base as much of the claims process is made via the app (quasi-SaaS). So should have some metrics similar to software companies. Talk of expanding into Australia adds some risk or potential upside. Some dilution with director options creeping in. Overall potential to do very well in next 12-24 months Returning to this valuation have kept it much the same. I do have increasing concerns regarding execution of expansion strategy plus paying dividends, number of options awarded to management (ie dilution) talk of entering the lending side of insolvency solutions and the social media posting of Jimmy Wong. The proof will be in the pudding when results are released. They have predicted a huge increase in earnings and NPAT. any deviation would probably result in a sell from me. Definitely high risk despite macro fundamentals.
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 4 years ago

After going through this more carefully, I'm a bit bearish on this company and I sold out even though they operate in the solvency sector which on appearances is a good counter-cyclical area to invest in. Not to mention there is a last minute buyer of shares which is propping the price. Some of many bear points are covered below.

I don't think the Chapter Two acquisition will be enough to gain traction in an already crowded Oz market dominated by larger players such as CCP and FSA. There is also the issue of integrating their tech platform used in HK to the acquisitions they've made.

There is dilution caused by extra shares being awarded to the directors as part of the remuneration (see all the Appendix 2A announcments).

The CEO does not own 50% of the float as mentioned before, transferring some shares to other big investors more than 6 months ago.

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