Straws are discrete research notes that relate to a particular aspect of the company. Grouped under #hashtags, they are ranked by votes.
A good Straw offers a clear and concise perspective on the company and its prospects.
Please visit the forums tab for general discussion.
Honestly, I went into this one thinking it was going to be a little ho-hum. One of those companies that has been listed forever, but never really gone anywhere, and dealing in a commodity product.
But after the chat my interest is definitely piqued.
The industry backdrop is solid, growing at about 6-7%pa globally. Peter said Clover has around 60% of the world market for microencapsulated omega-3, with only two serious competitors in the West. It takes new entrants three to five years just to get through regulatory approvals and customer qualification, which makes it really hard to break in. Once a customer signs up, they tend to stick around because infant formula makers have to go through long validation processes. Peter put it nicely: “it takes years to win a customer, and it’s very hard to lose one,” which gives the business some nice defensive qualities.
The new product "CholineXcel" sounds very interesting, and not at all pie in the sky. Peter reckons it has the potential to double the size of the business just by selling it to existing customers, because every infant formula manufacturer uses choline (and is mandated to do so these days). They’ve applied for a global patent with their process, which solves a real pain point in handling and stability, and it doesn’t rely on winning a single new customer to scale up meaningfully.
Financially, the balance sheet is in good shape. They run with low debt, keep about $8 million in cash, and fund growth internally. They’ve kept the share count stable for years, which is rare for a business of this size. Peter also made a point that they fully expense R&D rather than capitalising it, which makes the reported earnings more conservative.
The technology moat seems real. Beyond patents, there’s a lot of process know-how in how they extract, stabilise and encapsulate oils which isnt easily replicated. Vertical integration has been a long-term project for Peter’s decade at the helm, and it’s now largely complete. The idea being that it gives them better cost control, quality assurance, and margin protection.
Covid clearly knocked them around. Peter explained how pantry-stacking and regulatory changes in China created a bull-whip effect that took a couple of years to wash through. But now that demand has normalised, the underlying fundamentals look decent. The business is trading on a PE of around 15.8 times, with 30% gross margins, a 14% operating margin, and a 10% return on equity, and excellent cash conversion. For a manufacturer, that’s pretty good.
All up, it feels like a business with more going on under the hood than the market gives it credit for. But, i'm really just going off of what he said, and need to verify all this for myself. And, if i'm being honest, i'm a sucker for a cheap looking stock, but often these things are cheap for a reason.
Anyway, you can peruse the transcript here: CLV Transcript.pdf
The AI summery follows:
26-May-2020: Phillip Capital: Clover Corp (CLV): “Trading Update - COVID-19 consumer re-stocking boost”
Phillip Capital have a "HOLD" call on Clover Corp now, and have raised their 12-month TP from $1.64 to $1.81.
28-June-2019: http://www.asx.com.au/documents/research/clv-190628-phillipcapital-altona-site-visit-update.pdf
That's an update from Phillip Capital (PC) after a site visit to Clover's Altona (Melbourne) Production facility. PC have a "Hold" call on CLV - which they regard as a "High" risk investment - and a price target (PT) of $1.75 (previously $1.66). CLV closed yesterday (05-Jul-19) at $1.93, so Clover is already 10% above PC's PT, so perhaps not attractively priced for people who aren't already onboard the Clover train - according to Phillip Capital at least.
However, there is plenty of good info in this update, for anybody interested in CLV, who are a niche food ingredients’ company focussed on the production and sale of Omega-3 and DHA rich natural tuna oils and micro-encapsulated powders for applications in infant formulae, food, beverages and supplements. CLV provides these powders and oils to most of the leading infant formula manufacturers in Australia, New Zealand and to many of the leading multinationals.
DHA (Docosahexaenoic Acid) is an Omega-3 fatty acid which is essential for brain development in babies and children and is widely used to fortify infant formula. Governments are increasingly legislating the requirement for DHA in infant formula to match the levels found naturally occurring in human breast milk.
CLV uses patented technology licenced exclusively from CSIRO for the encapsulation of marine (fish) oils and algae oils into a dry stable powder form. This protects the ingredients from oxidation, degradation and adverse taste and smell. CLV is one of just 4 global providers of these key ingredients. Competitors are BASF, DSM and Friesland Campina, all large multinationals.
Clover is the only Australian listed company involved in the space, and Washington H Soul Pattinson (ASX: SOL) have been long-term cornerstone investors in CLV - and still hold 22.6% of CLV. SOL have a good track record of backing winners, like API, TPM (TPG Telecom) and NHC (New Hope Coal). See http://www.whsp.com.au/
CLV has a market capitalisation of around $319 million, big enough to feature on SOL's home page (see link above), whereas SOL's 19.95% investment in Palla Pharma Limited (ASX: PAL, formerly TPI Enterprises - ASX: TPE) doesn't rate a mention, because PAL's market cap is only around $87m. Incidentally, Thorney Opportunities (ASX: TOP)/TIGA Trading (Thorney Investment Group Australia) have recently increased their own stake in PAL from 14% to 17%. PAL and CLV are both companies worth keeping an eye on.
Disclosure: I hold shares in PAL, and have held shares in CLV previously, but I don't currently hold any CLV shares. I also hold SOL shares, and they are a core position in my SMSF.