Focusing on the key areas that will drive the Compumedics results and valuation, MEG and HST (Somfit):
MEG Systems
With reference to MEG, here is a screesnhot from the MEGIN website showing they have 100+ deployments round the wrold
Seems that MEGIN has moved quickly in a short space of time which is commendable for a private company.
From above, I believe MEGIN willl reduce the addressable market for Compumedic's MEG system (only 2 sold in China recently). Will be hard to dislodge an existing competitor or convince a potential customer that you should replace MEGIN with Compumedics.
Therefore the MEG sales by Compumedics could be a one-off for the year. Hopefully they could get another one next year, but MEGIN may disrupt that chance with so many sites already deployed.
HST (Home sleep testing)
The home sleep testing market is quite fragmented but one name called WatchPAT ONE stood out.
Furthermore, you can order WatchPAT ONE online which can't be done with Somfit (I don't see Somfit anywhere in my results)
Zoll Itamar is part of Japanese conglomerate Asahi Kasei who is effectively a Japanese version of Wesfarmers.
As we know from the acquisition of Altium, the Japanese has a lot of money and resources and will do the best to use that money to make promising products even better.
Also, if I think about the theory of Occam's Razor, I would pick WatchPAT ONE as all you need to do is wear the product on your wrist and finger while Somfit needs to be stuck on your head and wrapped around your chest.
Finally, why is Compumedics not marketing their product online like Asahi Kasei and making it more accessible?
As much as I hate doing these posts, sometimes have to be realistic.
[not held]
Noticed that the CEO is also the Chairman. Probably a warning sign right there!
Despite the diverse IP created by Dr Burton, management execution and a weak board with the Chairman as CEO (instead of separate CEO and Chairman) has not been really good in the past. So I'm not really sure if that bullish guidance can be achieved given the price action and a bit of my own research recently which I may reveal later.
I guess there is another saying for this..Diverse IP + Poor management/Board of directors = Poor returns.
Thinking of taking my tax loss right there based on the above information and moving on. My bad on not doing enough DD.
[held but not much conviction]
