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#Considerations
stale
Added 2 years ago

@KashyBoy my realisation with this ETF is that -- as much as I think this is a fascinating space -- it's still way too early to know who the winners will be. It's like tech stocks in the late 90's, or crypto tokens a decade ago.

With these kind of things, my insight is that the only thing that matters are network effects. These tend to be winner take all markets (or, at least, a very small handful of winners).

When technology creates new markets, where network effects rule, the strategy is simple: Buy the dominate network, and hold.

It wasn't clear at the beginning, but after a while it was pretty obvious (or, at least, it should have been) that Amazon dominated data centres and online retail. Google dominated Search. Facebook dominated Social. Netflix dominated streaming. Apple dominated consumer hardware etc. Here at home, CarSales dominated automotive classifieds, REA Group dominated property. Xero dominated accounting. Technology One dominated mid-tier enterprise. ProMedicus dominated medical imaging.

As the structural shift played out, these where the ones to hold. I only wish I understood that better at the time. These days, the big markets have been stitched up, and the opportunities are more in niche sectors (I think Pointerra is, perhaps, a good example). Anyway, i digress..

But when I look at the crypto landscape, i cant see what companies so far dominate and have built serious moats. (Microstrategy -- one of the core holdings of the ETF -- is a bit different, but mainly because of its treasury. Plus, I think Michael Saylor is very smart.)

Bitcoin miners require huge capital and scale, and face all kinds of risks associated with power prices, chip improvements etc. Exchanges (like online equity brokers) have little to no competitive advantages. A lot of the other companies represented by this ETF are just pure speculation.

That'll change, and it means that some of the very early gains will be missed. But the alternative is to speculate, and that's not what I like to do.

What's more interesting at this point, for me at least, are the various blockchain networks themselves. It seems to me that Bitcoin is clearly the dominate network, and in terms of which coin will ultimately hold the mantle of digital global reserve asset, it's game over. Ethereum looks like it'll win the race for smart contracts. All the rest will lose (unless they pivot to a useful layer 2 eg Lightening Network. Perhaps some other niche use cases).

So if you like the space, the answer is just buy Bitcoin :) It's a lot cheaper now than it was a little while ago!

Anyway, just some ramblings. Not advice! (the large majority of my assets remain in equities)