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#Bear Case Part 2
stale
Added 5 years ago

EN1 are tangled up in a legal battle.  With a law suite over non payment.  Expect legal fees to mount, and it is a concern this is their modu operandi.

Tehy are also applying for funding under the US PPO scheme.  The risk is they turn out to be ineligibel for this scheem and have to refund the monies.

 

#Bull Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

Geoff Green (TTD CEO) reported that linaer TV advertising is projected to fall 41% in the US this year, and connected TV (CTV) will pass linear TV in terms of reach for the first time in history.   Geoff also reported Trade Desk's programmatic advertising revenue bottomed in Mid April, and has been steadily improving since then.   

Advertisers need to be more strategic / targeted and will need to increasae spending as America re-opens.  Some states will open earlier than others, and blanket advertising will not be effective.  This situation plays into programmatic advetisings strengths.  

What does this mean for EN1?  the short term future is very uncertain, but what is clear, COVID-19 has accelerated the decline of LTV, and the primacy of CTV and programmatic advertising.  This plays well into EN1's business model.   But in contrast to Trade Desk's balance sheet, EN1's balance sheet is weak. 

Has EN1 seen the worst conditions, or is going to get worse? Will EN1 make it to the other side to benefit?  

#Bear Case
stale
Added 5 years ago

It has beeen a tough +6 months for shareholders.  

EN1 is low on cash and raised funds via zero coupon amortising securities. They work well when the share price goes up :).   The share count has gone up over 10% since august last year, with further dilution going forward under the scheme.  Management have promised to re-fiance the scheme under with improved, shareholder friendly terms.  

There is also legacy debt (apparently due to Ad fraud) sitting on the balance sheet, and yet to be resolved / closed out.  It is about $1.5 M.  

Meanwhile,  Trade Desk reported a fall in prorammatic advertising of around 15% yoy as at mid April, but are seeing improvement since then.   

EN1 is in a tight spot fianncially, but they are reporting promising growth, and are in the the CV and programatic advertising space, an area with secular tailwinds.   

Shareholders could face more dilution, as the new platform Net Zero, needs cash to drive growth.