Consensus community valuation
I'm tapping out of this one IRL (took a micro position to force myself to do the proper analysis) and Strawman.
Long term, I'm still bullish about nuclear as part of a low carbon future energy mix for the world. That means uranium (fission) will be needed as fusion is too far out and we are seeing a lot of growth in reactors (Gen 3, Gen 4 and SMR). https://www.amacad.org/sites/default/files/academy/pdfs/nuclearReactors.pdf. For example, India just brought another home grown reactor on line the past month https://www.powermag.com/india-begins-commercial-operation-of-first-domestically-designed-700-mwe-phwr-nuclear-reactor/
However, I've done a deeper dive on DYL and don't think the timing is right for me.
Looking at their two main projects that are anywhere close to production.
- Mulga Rock - pre-tax NPV8 $393m USD at an assumed $55 per lb (based upon the VIMY ASX DFS 26/8/2020). Noting that they intend to update this in the coming 12 months but looks like the project is still 5 years from production and will require AUD$400m+ capital (probably more given inflation etc. we've been through since 2020)
- Tumas - pre-tax NPV8 $340m USD at an assumed $65 per lb (based upon the 17/7/23 Corporate Presentation on ASX). The big red flag here is the assumed price for Uranium. This is the requirement for them to even move to financing this development which is their next milestone and first step towards becoming a producer. Its at least two years and a further 10% uranium price increase from production.
Uranium price has been high recently thanks to Mr Putin but long term its not even been close to the numbers required in the business cases for these projects. 8% in the NPV calculation (to me that's long term market returns rather than outsize returns) with a pretty high assumed Uranium price makes me way too nervous and doesn't justify the level of uncertainty here.
I know I'm over-simplifying as they have other prospects but current market cap of AUD$724m and pre-tax NPV USD$733m just doesn't give enough asymmetry ... (uranium prices, exchange rates, taxes etc.). Luckily, the DYL share price has run up nicely on the back of the recent increases in Uranium prices so at least I'm going to cover my brokerage and I've spent a few hours reading and now know enough to add a number much lower than today's share price to my watch list.