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PSI) (PSC) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a binding scheme implementation deed (Implementation Deed) under which, subject to the satisfaction of various conditions, PSC will acquire all of the shares in the capital of Ensurance Ltd (ASX:ENA) (ENA) by way of a scheme of arrangement under Part 5.1 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Corporations Act) (Scheme).
Market cap $21Mill only a minnow small one here.
Not sure this is the type of investment I was expecting from ENA - not sure what I think of it. No financials given.
Could well be $1.5M torched or a significant winner. Not sure how likely it is for people to want to install something on their car, those that don't drive much I imagine would be classic cars which would def not want to add something and probably wouldn't work being electronic?
Ensurance Limited (ASX: ENA) (Ensurance or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has made a strategic investment in innovative car insurance retailer, KOBA Insurance, providing Ensurance with the right to distribute KOBA’s insurance product.
KOBA is a private Australian company that launched in November 2021, offering a data-driven approach to car insurance. Users pay a fixed amount to have their car insured while it’s parked, and then pay only for the distance they drive. Usage is measured through a small matchboxsized device called a KOBA Rider that attaches to a car’s On-board Diagnostics (OBD) port.
13 March 2023
Underwriting agency Ensurance says the business is in a “good position” to grow its Australian presence after completing the sale of its UK arm to Melbourne-based listed PSC Insurance Group for $8.2 million.
The two companies said last week the deal has received approval from UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority.
Under the terms of the agreement, 75% of the purchase price will be payable in cash and the other 25% via paid ordinary shares of PSC. The issue price of the shares will be determined by the average closing price of PSC stock for the 10 days prior to completion.
Ensurance CEO Tom Kent says the sale proceeds will allow the underwriting agency to “catalyse” its growth plan for the Australian market.
“Now we can look at acquisitions, work on new products. It’s a good position to be in,” Mr Kent told insuranceNEWS.com.au today.
He says one of Ensurance’s goals is to “achieve growth over and above market rates” and the business has been able to do so.
Ensurance is re-focusing on the Australian market, having worked in the last few years to establish its UK business after selling its local underwriting arm to 360 Construction and Engineering in 2020.
Mr Kent says the feedback from brokers has been positive.
“We’re finding that brokers just want more products, they want tailored service, they want to be able to have a discussion with an underwriter about a risk rather than just being told they have to log on to another quote and bind platform,” Mr Kent said.
Clearly investing for growth with a $400k increase in employment costs on the pcp. If they hadn't invested for growth the Australian operations would have generated about $450k in NPBT or annualised about $900k perhaps a bit below with other salary increases. Say 800k NPBT or NPAT of about $560k. That would put them on about 40x earnings but adjust for the PSC shares and cash to come in in the 3Q very roughly 22x earnings.
As long as the investments in staff make sense and they generate revenue ENA looks to be going in the right direction albeit some of it is hidden with the investment. I imagine expenses will increase with the new offices too in the next 6 months.
They would have been FCF positive just from the Australian operations even with the increase in costs which is also nice.
Might take quite some time for everything to show through and be recognised by the market. The insurance PI market may shift to premium softening which would not be good.
A team of former Steadfast executives has launched an underwriting agencies incubator, backed by an American investor, to help new agencies enter the market.
“Rhodian is looking to create and incubate, support the next generation of agency leaders and the brands that they will create,” he says.
More interest in the space, a bit annoying for competition with ENA but hopefully there's enough to go around.
Continued strong Quarter from Ensurance especially in the core Australian division.
Great to see not only a positive operating cashflow but also continued profitability.
With one off expenses associated with the settlement of the sale of UK division and set up of casualty division within Australia these costs will be yielding future growth in revenue and profitability.
Looking at the quarter I sense its a bit of a reset in terms of preparation of the sale of the UK division and formation of the casualty division in Australia.
Growth will thus occur both organically via price increases but also via new products as mentioned in 4C across the environmental impairment and general liability area across the Australian Market.
@Invmum good call re GWP growth and slowing nature and something to keep a close eye on but feel this the beginning of the journey for Tom and the team not a flattening.
Finally concur with @Mujo re the disciplined manner in which capital is being used. This is a real strength and look forward to the future quarters especially with the receipt of the 6.2 million in cash (in Q3 2023) which will be added to the 1.163 million in cash currently.
Disc. Top 5 position in RL and SM
@mujo appreciate the post and interesting development in the insurance, specifically MGA space.
For me this clearly shows the strength of this sector at the present time and attractive margins that accompany the players that operate in the space.
Fluent will be tested in terms of the multiples they will need to pay to gain a share in the space in Australia or they will need to wait years to see the cycle adjust and thus multiple offered to be lower.
Fluent's advantage may be the ability to provide funding for any MGA whom seeks to grow and capitalise on the positive conditions presented ie, accelerate grow. This makes sense on one hand but the question would be at what cost would equity be offered?
Fascinating to see unfold over the next 5 years.
Tom Kent - ENA CEO has repeatedly commented on the stretched mutiples in the market place presently and the need for patience and discipline.
In respect to being acquired themselves i suspect the offer for ENA to give equity away would need to be very attractive as the high insider ownership would simply lead to dilution.
Would love to here anyone else's thoughts?
DISC: Holder of ENA in RL and SM
A fund manager letter explaining a little about MGAs - Fluent+Risk+Partners+Inaugural+Partner+Letter.pdf (squarespace.co
Obviously getting some attention overseas.
Have assumed rev growth 30% p.a out to FY28 ($12m); 20% thereafter
peak EBITDA margins of 37% - this compares with PSI 37%; AUB 25%; SDF 31%
10 yr DCF using WACC 11%; Terminal gr/r 3%
val $0.45
Lots to like -- founder led, skin in the game, high margin, high ROE, recurring rev, likely M&A target, no debt -- but relies on execution which to date hasn't been great. Hopefully this is the start
More on-market trades for Ensurance... this one very small from Anthony Leibowitz, but continues the pattern @TEPCapital
Chairman Tony Leibowitz continues to top up at ENA with further purchase of over 320,000 shares at 0.23c this week.
Holding now sits at 17.5% with Tom Kent - CEO holding a further 15.8%
This takes past 12months purchases from CEO and Chairman to just under $690k
Disc Hold
One of ENA's key lines:
"There is an excess demand for Cyber insurance in Australia vs. available supply. Research by insurance brokerage Aon found the most common reason for an insurer declining to quote for Cyber coverage was inappropriate access controls, followed by the lack of business resilience plans. The same analysis by Aon found insurers were increasingly becoming concerned about risks across all sectors."
Will have to be careful though, a lot of policies losing money for insurers:
Per Macquarie:
Hi Straws had the opportunity to attend AGM of ENA on Wednesday 23rd Nov and wanted to share some insights in lookng ahead.
Firstly declaring my holding in RL and SM of ENA.
Secondly having attended larger AGM's it was fantastic to be able to able to sit in more of a intimate setting to complete the formalities and then break out in open dialoge and in turn one on one discussion with the key leaders of ENA.
Specifically , CEO - Tom, CFO - Lauren , Chairman - Tony and National Sales Manager in Nick.
In doing so the ability to explore the edge ENA have created and looking to exploit was of high interest and being able to ask how this will be executed to confirm this edge is real .
Key take outs:
What to watch :
Call out to to Tom P fro TEP capital . Great to meet him at the AGM and share the experience.
Solid results released by Ensurance this morning .
Key metrics and highlights .
Tom Kent - CEO commented on continued strength across all segments and intends to release new product lines in the coming months.
Disciplined nature in terms of growing profitability and shareholder return coupled with high insider ownership and senior management alignment bode well for the next 3-5yrs
Hold my current valuation of 44c
Top 5 position in my portfolio
A little snippet from Macquarie's review of Arthur J. Gallagher (american insurance company.
PC market renewal premiums continue to increase across all major AJG geographies and product lines globally. Sept qtr to date renewal premiums, rates and exposure combined, are up >10% for the group.
Australia is up 15%; property is up >20%; casualty, high teens; and professional liability in the low teens. Most other lines are in the high single-digit range. New Zealand, renewal premium changes over 10%. Most lines renewal premiums are in this range, +/- a few points.
Cyber remains the most challenging coverage for clients in terms of rate, capacity, and terms. Public company D&O, is seeing a moderation of rate increases; and, in some cases, clients renew their programs closer to flat.
Taking a deeper diver into the outlook for ENA I have updated and upgraded valuation .
Assumptions that are driving the change are as follows:
Revenue growth (Australian division only ) to be 40% pa over next 5 yrs.
This growth reflects the low base of 2.4m in FY22 .
FY 2027 revenue to reach 12.91million
Although this appears to be aggressive there are clear plans in play on the expansion with offices across the major states in Australia.
EBITDA margins to be 30%.
The Australian division achieved over 50% EBITDA margins in FY22 so the the 30% offers some buffer.
By FY 2027 the EBITDA will growth to 3.87m (FY 22 Australian division was 1.34m)
The motivation of the leadership group to bring on revenue that is of high margin is a clear focus and a priority (best reflected in the sale of the low margin UK business)
Shares on Issue to grow from 90.1m to 104.5m or 3% per year .
This allows for some the board to approve long term incentives for the leadership team.
When deriving at 44c valuation PSC serves as a good benchmark .
The multiples they are trading at as of 23rd Sep 2022
7x revenue
18x EBITDA
At the 7x revenue line provides a MC of 70mill for ENA in 2027 or 67c
At a 18x EBITDA 90mil for ENA in 2027 or 93c
Taking a 10% discount per year for the five years to the 7x revenue (the more conservative figure) with 104.5mill SOI = 44c
With great tailwinds in the current environment and high insider ownership whom are disciplined in their capital management ENA remains a strong buy
Top 5 position in my portfolio in RL and on SM
Capital light and operating leverage.
From the SDF recent results call - not on ENA per se but the model.
Stephen Humphrys
Yes, you get a slightly higher leverage, yes, in an agency. It's probably more like 80% as opposed to 70%. And then it really just comes down to that cost and how each particular business performed. As I said, I think where you might have had a slight imbalance this year, I expect some of that to reverse next year and normalize it all back out. So I wouldn't say there's anything what you might call fundamentally different, ultimately, if you look at over that, say, that 2-year horizon.
Robert Kelly
And also, just to give you a little bit more perspective on that, an underwriting agency can write a lot more business without necessarily exponentially having to put on more staff to do it, whereas a broker may be constrained to be able to write another 20% or 30% more business without having an impact on their expense line. So there is a different metric in underwriting agencies in terms of volume, not necessarily being followed by increasing expenses.
Stephen Humphrys
Hence, why the higher margins.
Robert Kelly
That's why the mark in agencies, particularly the larger ones.
Doron Kur
Makes a lot of sense. And maybe just a bit more color, Robert, on your point there around opportunities for agencies as insurers reposition product lines and distribution.
Robert Kelly
Yes. Look, I think that there's more and more where insurers are being more finite about what they want to write and so that at some products, they're dropping out. They're not as keen to write them, but they've still got to be sold into the market that consumers still wishes to buy them. So in doing that, that allows an opportunity for an MGA to pick up the specialist line to fulfill that gap. And so -- and also in some degrees of how their reinsurance is now put together where they elect not to take certain CRESTA codes on in property, then that allows that part of the property section to go into the open market, which again allows us to more develop products to fulfill that gap.
Seem to be a few different way MGAs are priced at takeover i.e from EBIT multiples, to % of GWP depending on the acquirer. Larger size means higher multiples.
$6M cash from takeover plus $1M in cash existing - $7M.
$2M in PSC Shares.
Australian GWP around $19.5M (my estimate). Going to value this at 75% of GWP so $14.7M.
$14.7M + $9M = $23.7M
86.9M shares on issue.
Value of $0.27.
I think this is quite conservative but current premium hardening cycle, micro cap, execution risk, and lose some scale over fixed costs due to sale of UK. Keen to follow to see how the story unfolds and will increase my valuation as I become more confident.
No surprises from Ensurance today with the release of full year results but what is evident is the pivot to Australian market which net profit (excluding head office) was 1.345million on revenue of 2.462m. Net profit margin of 54%.
The Sold UK business although delivering good top line of 4.832m for the full year contributed 262k to net profit on a margin of 5.4%.
The high insider ownership Tom Kent (CEO ) and Tony L (Chairman ) have and the discipline approach to the business displayed provides comfort that the future is positive.
Hold in RL and SM
Top 5 position
Very large cross trade on ENA. Not sure whether this is the last of the overhang from a shareholder selling out or something else.
Really positive results fro ENA this morning .
Hard to fault.
ENA Q4 and FY 2022.pdf
In commenting on the year ahead Tom Kent CEO explained the uncertain environment presents opportunity for ENA across multiple areas with professional indemnity area particularly strong
Happy holder on SM and RL
Ensurance Chairman Anthony Leibowitz took Wini's advice to buy the dip and bought up another 500,000 shares on market yesterday. This adds to shares he and CEO Tom Kent had bought in recent weeks. With more than 14.9m shares already owned he wasn't exactly underweight on the register either. Lots of reasons to sell but only one to buy.
To further add to the comments of the 3rd Qrt results both revenue and GWP grew at 46% and 62% which is in line with the YTD revenue and GWP growth of 43% and 66%.
Looking to see this expand in the coming Quarters as TEP capital eluded to .
Currently 28.8mill of 40mill GWP is being generated out of UK arm with construction driving 60% of revenue and 25% revenue coming from cyber security.
The opening of Sydney on jan 1st 2022 and Melbourne branches May 2022 with two senior underwriters in line with Liberty agreement provides confidence growth can continue to accelerate .(Using what Tom at TEP capital outlined if each senior underwriter employed brings in 3.75mill and additional = $7-8mill additional in GWP annually which is 57% increase for the Australian division).
To support this the reference to the following conditions is another positive indicator for the future.
"The Australian division of the Company has again seen an increase in premiums, particularly in the classes of Professional Indemnity insurance and Cyber Liability insurance. The scarcity of capacity, particularly in construction related classes, has contributed to growth in new business enquiries and retention rates across the Ensurance Australia renewal portfolio"
The reference to scarcity of capacity provides ENA a real edge in what ENA elects to take on to ensure the quality of the GWP is enabling the business to be profitable.
With respect to costs ENA is on the cusp of profitability and in 3rd Qrt its costs were 1.481m which were 9.3% below the average costs of the first two quarters in FY22.
This disciplined nature will no doubt will be real positive as the quarters unfold for ENA.
Disc Held on SM and RL
Yes nice to see the overhang clear.
I was able to chat with Tom Kent today and can align the sentiments of TEP capital.
Tom Perfrement really appreciate the insight you have provided to date on ENA.
The business is strict on where it plays with a keen eye on high margins niche areas which continue to emerge such as terrorism.
Tom having rolled his TKSR business into ENA is keen to pay off debt (last 1mil) and in turn look to distribute via dividends in time if small acquisitions don't eventuate.
With approx 12 small ensurers being independent in Australia Tom Kent made it clear he sees the road to drive GWP organically as attractive as any acquisition if multiples to EBIT are greater than 4x.
Tom agreed that seeking to grow GWP by 20-25% was a reasonable assumption and in line with this remain cashflow positive
This is a bet which provides nice upside with low risk.
Held in IRL (in top 6 position in portfolio) and SM
BT