Have finally been hit with Covid (dodged it for 3.5 years!) so need to go lie down, but just a few thoughts on the the Freelancer Meeting before I do:
- I was genuinely surprised to see a flat/slightly falling share count given the business has recorded a loss for ten years. There's a distinction to be made between statutory profit and free cash flow which i'll need to dig into (the latter seems much better than I would have guessed)
- Matt has been buying shares and owns 43% of the business now. Together with other board members he owns 84% of the business -- which explains the very low volume. But also points, potentially, to some conviction.
- Shares are at half the 50c IPO price from a decade ago, but the business is twice as large from a revenue perspective and (potentially) has a lot more earnings potential. in fact..
- 85% gross margins have the potential to deliver attractive operating/net margins as the business pulls back on certain coasts (Matt said a bit of bloat had crept in)
- Freelancer is 3-4x the size of the nearest competitor, so should have far superior network effects (more freelancers, which attract more jobs and so on)
- AI is a big enabler for freelancers in places like India which will make the site even better value, in Matt's view
- He's clearly a very gregarious character, but his view on VC funding and Aussie Property certainly did resonate a lot with me -- although clearly he's wrong on Bitcoin.. ;)
I have no exposure to Freelancer and not sure I ever would until there are genuine signs of improvement at the bottom line. Matt talks a good talk, but the proof will be in the pudding. Not just in reported profits but a return to top line growth.
For those interested, his SMH Keynote talk is here
His Medium blog post on AI is here
His macro voices podcast is here