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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

25-Nov-2018:  In the "Business Model / Strategy" straw that I wrote for this company three months ago, I explained that, like horse racing, pedigree often matters with speculative explorers like this with zero cashflow.  These companies are mining their shareholders wallets until they manage to transition to producers, which the vast majority never manage to do.  

So here we are.  Three months later.  Mark Creasy still owns 31% of the company.  They are announcing plenty of positive things, including this investor presentation 10 days ago - and that they have discovered a brand new target - see here (from 30-Oct-2018).  However - the share price has dropped 35% in those three months - from 27.5 cents then - to 18 cents now.  Creasy is also involved in Legend Mining (ASX: LEG) who also have released plenty of positive news, and also have dropped 33% from 4.6 cents to 3.1 cents in the past 3 months.  Sentiment trumps pedigree it seems, and sentiment is down at the moment, especially towards highly speculative metals and minerals explorers.   Donald Trump does what he does.  Global Growth assumptions are questioned.  Risk appetites reduce.  Share prices of certain stocks get smashed more than others.  It's part of the game at the speculative end of the market.  It's not for the faint hearted.  And it's not a place to bet the farm either.  Small punts at the small end.  Never bet more than you can afford to lose.  Because you'll lose on MOST of these speculative explorers.  One winner can cover a lot of losses, because you can only lose up to 100%, but you can multi-bag on a winner - so well over 100%, but sometimes you don't get any winners.  It's not investing.  But I like it more than horse racing.

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Last edited 5 years ago

It's hard to mount a bull case for an explorer like Galileo Mining.  They are a speculative junior minerals explorer.  These companies can ten-bag, or go to zero.  Most do go to zero eventually, or become a tech/biotech company and go to zero eventually anyway.  Even those that are eventually succesful usually have a number of capital raisings along the way.  Howard Coleman from TeamInvest used to say that most of these explorers only did one thing well consistently, which was to mine their shareholders' wallets.

That's the bear case. They aren't investments. They are gambling, speculation. And if you have some spare cash and like a punt, they CAN offer some excitement, especially when they are announcing drilling results.  Speaking of drilling results, here's what GAL have coming up:

  • August-September: first round of Norseman exploration drill results
  • September-October: second round of Norseman exploration drill results
  • October: metallurgical test work updates
  • October: Empire Rose first pass drilling and EM surveying results
  • November: Norseman scoping study results

And speaking of having a punt, some people like to bet on horse races.  Some just like a horse's name, and then you get the more serious punters that study the form guide and try to improve their own odds.  Betting on junior exploration companies can be like that too.  You can study their form guide as well.  Who are the major shareholders?  Who are the management?  What have they achieved previously?

In GAL's case, they have Mark Creasy as their largest shareholder, owning 31% of GAL.  Mark is very active in the Fraser Range especially.  He is one of Australia's most succesful geologists - having found the Nova-Bollinger Nickel-Copper-Cobalt system when with Sirius - which is now owned and mined by IGO, as well as plenty of other commercially viable deposits.

Galileo also have IGO on their register as well as Chris Ellison, the founder and MD of MIN.  Ellison came in at #13 on the 2018 WA Rich List - worth an estimated $655 million.

http://richlist.thewest.com.au/2018/20-11/

Ellsion owns 21.6m MIN shares, worth over $330m.

Here is a link to GAL's most recent presentation:

AMEC Investor Briefing, 27 Aug 2018

And a similar one from earlier in the month:

http://www.galileomining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/August-1-2018.pdf

And their website:

http://www.galileomining.com.au/

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http://www.nationalminingchronicle.com.au/news/18302-galileo-s-dash-to-drill-cobalt