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Valuation of $1.000
stale
Added 4 years ago

See more detail in my bull and bear cases.

I think there is risk here, however like the high inside ownership and ambition of CEO.

They made a lot of cash last FY, 11m increase in cash on hand and that is after 2.7m in tax and 2.2m of debt repayments (and no capital raisings). Excellent year to be in capital raisings etc with a hot stock market, repeatability will be interesting to see in a flat or downward trending market. But this current position gives them scope to expand and improve the offering.

My $1 per share valuation (200m market cap) is a rough estimate and assumes they will stave of any competition to their networks and manage to grow for another few years in Aus and Canada. In a stable market perhaps they can stabilise at a profit close to 10m. I think there's ambition to do much better than that and expand into new markets, in which case I could see a much higher valuation. However also think there's risk to the downside over longer term from competitors, bad stock market years, reputational damage


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#Bear Case
stale
Added 4 years ago

See in conjunction with my bull case.

Transparency is not great. really have to dig into the notes of the annual report to see segment revenues etc. Presentations seem to be just management speak (on slides at least - I haven't attended any), with details buried in the back and kept to a minimum. Perhaps being run somewhat like a private company (as mentioned in my bull case, to 20 own 96.5%)

They changed auditor from EY to RMS a couple of years ago and are reporting much higher revenues. It is a complex business admittedly but that is a concern. At least RMS are credible. They do report unearned income in relation to contracts that are paid upfront but for which TMH must provide investor relations type services throughout the course of the next (typically) 12 months. This exploded in 2020, but encouraging to see cashflows come through in 2021 and the amount stabilise.

HotCopper and potentially stockhouse and potentially TMH are all in competition with larger companies like twitter in terms of how and where people go to get their news these days.

CEO Jag Sanger holds 11m shares plus some options (5-10% of company), however he paid for them via a loan from the company. Likely all part of the package to sign him up, however would always prefer that management had purchased their own shares or were founders in the business. He has some history with vehicle financing operations and they have gone into this at TMH, seems totally off mission and they haven't really promoted it.



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