# The Budget Just Made Hub24’s Runway Even Longer

The 2026 budget dropped last week and the headlines are all about negative gearing and CGT. But if you own HUB, the real story is what this does to the relative attractiveness of super and platform-held investments versus everything else. Spoiler: it just got a lot better.

Start with the CGT overhaul. The 50% discount is gone from July 2027, replaced with cost base indexation and a 30% minimum tax on real capital gains. But here’s the kicker: super funds keep the one-third CGT discount. So if you’re an adviser sitting across from a client with a $2m share portfolio held personally and another $800k on-platform in super, the conversation just changed. The tax gap between “inside super” and “outside super” widened meaningfully. That’s a structural tailwind for FUA growth, and Hub24 is the #1 platform for net inflows eight quarters running.

Then there’s negative gearing, restricted to new builds from July 2027. Existing properties are grandfathered, but the signal is clear: established investment property just lost its tax edge. Where does that capital go? Financial assets. Managed accounts. Super. All of which flow through platforms. Add the 30% minimum tax on discretionary trusts from 2028 (with super funds explicitly excluded), and you’ve got a triple incentive shift pushing money towards exactly the structures Hub24 administers.

The one mild headwind is Division 296, the doubled tax on super earnings above $3m, which kicks in 1 July this year. But let’s be honest, this affects a tiny slice of Hub24’s member base. Average FUA per adviser is $24m across hundreds of underlying accounts. This is not a platform-level risk.

The operational numbers remain excellent. H1 FY26 delivered $246m revenue (up 26%), platform EBITDA margins of 46.7% (up 3.5 percentage points), and statutory NPAT up 80%. Q3 FUA hit $151.7bn despite wobbly markets. Management lifted FY27 custody FUA guidance to $160-170bn. At ~$80 a share you’re paying around 48x forward earnings, which is not cheap, but the budget just handed the growth story a policy tailwind that wasn’t in anyone’s model 48 hours ago.

**So what / what I’m watching next:** None of these budget changes are priced in yet. The real test is whether adviser behaviour shifts in FY27-28 as CGT, negative gearing and trust tax reforms bed in. If net flows accelerate from the current $18-20bn annual run rate because advisers are restructuring clients into super and managed accounts, Hub24’s valuation starts looking less stretched. The risk? At 48x forward, you need the execution to stay near-perfect and the market to stay constructive. A proper correction in equities would hit FUA and the multiple simultaneously. But on a 2-3 year view, this budget just made the platform model more structurally important to Australian wealth management than it already was. That’s worth paying attention to. @Strawman @mikebrisy @JohnnyM @Solvetheriddle @jcmleng