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#TAM. trials and expected timet
stale
Added 3 years ago

Hi Sly and the family Stone

This is in now way meant to be a bubble popper for how great this product could be for impugne, but I thought I would point out a few things I have learnt from painful experience.

these are things I am sure you are aware of, but perhaps lesser experienced investors reading your post might not be aware of.

Cancer therapy trials are complex. It is worth reading up on the structure, cost and probability of success of each particular stage trial any therapeutic agent needs to go through.

this is true for any drug but cancer trials have additional issues to consider.

A drug to treat a simple infection, say tonsillitis, has key advantages to trial in comparison to cancer agents.

Tonsillitis will resolve, or not resolve, in response to a treatment in a week. Trials are short and easy to measure.

cancers are much more complex. Trials will measure things like “disease free interval”, “time to clinical progression” , “tumour volume” and so on. These are quicker to measure (months) but don’t actually measure anything particularly important.

The gold standard outcome is survival. 1 year, 2 year, 5 year survival rates. To measure these tales, well, 1,2 or 5 years!

And big numbers of patients to measure anything meaningful.

So, in summary there might be some intermediate encouraging updates in th coming months but there won’t be anything conclusive for…. you guessed it.

Further, intermediate markers of success that seem really encouraging often do not translate into clinically meaningful outcomes.

good luck to all!

#Bear Case
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Last edited 4 years ago

Thanks @slymeat

just to reply to one point regarding taking so long to come up with utilising the immune system to fight cancer. 
there are multiple ways to try to use the immune system to fight cancer. I have invested in at least two ASX listed companies trying to use that technique, predominantly through vaccination. Neither are still a going concern. I am confident that pattern has been repeated around the world x100. 
as I'm sure you are aware the success rate of bringing a new therapeutic agent to market is miserable (of the order of low single digit % or oncology)  and the cost is prodigious (1.5billion USD)

I don't understand CarT at a level to make me confident to understand their probability of success, despite having a medical background, but do understand the basic probability of biotech success. 
I wish you and them the very best of luck, but to me feels like buying a lottery ticket