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#Trading update
Added 4 months ago


Management states "Rip Curl and Kathmandu sales have shown continued improvement on first half sales trends during both the third and fourth quarters of FY24"

Or in other words the negative growth in the second half are not as big

I suppose the management have to focus on the positives

be1be3adf438802e5c827cdc6cb5437544ad06.png

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#Bear Case
Added 6 months ago

Out of the recreation/outdoor wear shops, KMD probably has the best placed shops compared to SUL with many in major shopping centres.

As an example, I went in to Kathmandu at the local Westfield as it was easier to get to. I could have gone to Macpac but I think they are slightly more expensive. And Anaconda is a bit more of a trip. But finding some thermal undergaments was a bit of work with all the sizes scattered everywhere across the shelves. Couldn't the product be organised correctly by size?

Having said that, the shop format of Kathmandu is still dowdy. Hard to believe they can't take advantage of their store locations and make things a little bit easier to find in the shop.

Guess I can see why SUL keeps running rings around KMD

Definitely cheap and good value, but I think it's because of the observations I made above. Don't think I'll make that mistake again but will keep visiting their shops to see if there are any notable changes.

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#Ozempic
stale
Last edited one year ago

Posting here instead because RMD threads getting way too much attention and a bit "noisy" right now.

So apologies if some RMD thread watchers may miss this.

Jarden put out a list of stocks that may score well with Ozempic

-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))

-Qantas Airways ((QAN))

-Autosports Group ((ASG))

-Accent Group ((AX1))

-Super Retail ((SUL))

-Costa Group ((CGC))

-nib Holdings ((NHF))

-Medibank Private ((MPL))

-Air New Zealand ((AIZ))

-Briscoe Group ((BGP))

-KMD Brands ((KMD))

Didn't think ALS group would have any benefit and I can't think of any reason why it should. Not sure about QAN and AIZ.

Interesting I posted a straw mentioning KMD as a beneficiary, but I think it will take time to find out if this will play out.

I can also think of a few other health stocks where Ozempic could cause some disruption.


Full article from fnarena below:

Jarden believes any impact on company earnings is likely to remain benign, although uncertainty will dominate at first, and this might translate into share price weakness ahead of any concrete impact, simply on the expectation of future earnings erosion, just like what has happened overseas. And, of course, as has happened already for share prices in ResMed ((RMD)), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH)) and CSL ((CSL)).

Jarden suggests it'll be 5-10 years before we know what impact, if any, on company earnings might result from these drugs. Again, this won't necessarily stop share prices from taking a hit in the meantime.

Analysts at Jarden have identified 47 ASX-listed companies that can -potentially- be affected by the growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs. 49% of these companies should be negatively affected through reduced demand for food and drinks, and as better health outcomes reduce the need for healthcare treatments.

GLP-1s act like a heavy-handed suppressant, with early indications this might include all kinds of addictions, such as gambling. But first-line changes would be through people starting to eat less, change to a more healthy lifestyle, order less fast food and fizzy drinks, and start buying different shoes and clothing as wastelines shrink.

First up, the small list of identified potential "winners" from the widespread adoption of GLP-1 drugs:

-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))

-Qantas Airways ((QAN))

-Autosports Group ((ASG))

-Accent Group ((AX1))

-Super Retail ((SUL))

-Costa Group ((CGC))

-nib Holdings ((NHF))

-Medibank Private ((MPL))

-Air New Zealand ((AIZ))

-Briscoe Group ((BGP))

-KMD Brands ((KMD))

The following companies have been identified for "marginal negative" impacts:

-Amcor ((AMC))

-Orora ((ORA))

-Pact Group Holdings ((PGH))

-City Chic Collective ((CCX))

-EVT Ltd ((EVT))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-Endeavour Group ((EDV))

-Metcash ((MTS))

-The Reject Shop ((TRS))

-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))

-Woolworths Group

-CSL ((CSL))

Candidates for potentially "negative" outcomes include Collins Food ((CKF)), Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP)), Aroa Biosurgery ((ARX)), Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)), ResMed, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, and Restaurant Brands New Zealand ((RBD)).

[held]

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#Industry/competitors
stale
Last edited one year ago

Let's take the scenario where someone with CKD and diabetes took those weight loss drugs which relieves some symptoms

This in turn makes them lose weight and gives them more energy to do more physical activities. That's assuming they are slightly overweight.

To do more activities they would need to update their wardrobe.

Wouldn't it make sense to go to one of the businesses owned by KMD holdings or a similar peer?

Food for thought but bear in mind this is a very basic simple top down analysis.

I'm aware this "thought bubble" is a bit far-fetched and is perhaps too early to assess.

Meanwhile some comparisons. I didn't remove the other apparel retailers from the IQ Pro screen as there is some bug preventing it. But it gives an idea of which ones to focus on.

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On a forward basis, seems KMD is perhaps fair value so will need to do more digging to validate that forward multiple.

As mentioned in earlier straw that there has been management changes too.

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#H1FY2021 Results 23/3/21
stale
Added 4 years ago

Strong Rip Curl performance underpinned 1H Group result

  •  Rip Curl achieved strong sales and profits, despite COVID-19 impacts in key global markets, validating the Group’s diversification strategy
  •  Kathmandu impacted by COVID-19 related travel restrictions and store closures  Oboz sales growth and strong forward order book, benefiting from successful product innovation strategy and diversification of customer base
  •  Step change in Group online penetration reflecting improved digital capabilities and changing consumer preferences
  • Robust balance sheet with low net debt, and clean inventory position
  •  Dividend resumes, with NZ 2.0 cents per share interim dividend.....

 

1H FY21 key highlights (vs 1H FY20) 

  •  Sales up 12.9% to $410.7 million, including a full six month contribution from Rip Curl
  •  Step change in Group online penetration, with online representing 12.7% of direct to consumer (DTC) sales (1H FY20: 8.8%)
  •  Underlying EBITDA up 19.0% to $48.2 million (excluding the impact of IFRS 16 and one-off transaction and abnormal costs)
  •  Statutory NPAT of $22.3 million
  •  Underlying NPAT up 32.8% to $23.1 million (excluding the impact of IFRS 16 and one-off transaction and abnormal costs)
  •  Robust balance sheet, with $10.1 million net debt, reflecting working capital management strategie 
  •  Resumption of dividends, with NZ 2.0 cents per share interim dividend declared (fully franked for Australian shareholders, and not imputed for New Zealand shareholders)

Who would have thought that it would take a Pandemic to help the "Retail Sector" going again....not to mention the Government's help...

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