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#ASX Announcements
Added 3 months ago

MAF acquires a large scale Melbourne Hotel (Vibe Dockside) to seed new Accommodation Hotel Fund

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02769346-2A1503111

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#ASX Announcements
Added 5 months ago
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#Risks
stale
Added 9 months ago

[Held]

Can't seem to find any news or announcements to explain the drop... did the government finally scrap the significant investor visa?

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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 9 months ago

One of MAFs key private debt funds has a unique structure where there are two classes of units. Class B represents 10% of the Fund and is fully loss absorbing before Class A where investors enter are impacted.

Exerpt from Bondadviser research report:

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Pretty material risk to the equity holders if things did go bad.

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#ASX: Financial Update
stale
Added 10 months ago

MAF provided an update. Briefly (see below) it continues to execute and scale quickly.

My summary is that regardless of the macro environment high net wealth individuals with big money keep looking for opportunities to invest big sums of money! This is one of my major reasons for being invested. I figure I can also take “indirect” advantage of these opportunities and returns by investing in MAF.

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Valuation of $4.50
stale
Added one year ago

Update 28/02/2023

I had another look at my valuation following @NewbieHK's post.

I'm not sure how I came up with my below figure because I ran the numbers again with the same calculations and my valuation is $4.50 even with the discount of 20%. Must have been half distracted sorry!

EPS of $0.28 at 20x PE = $5.60 (as per NewbieHK's post).

20% discount to this figure would equate to around $4.50.

Have since taken up a small starter position and will continue to monitor this company.

Disc: Held IRL, Will place a buy order on Strawman to reflect this.

Update 23/02/2023

MAF reported this morning with statutory NPAT of $44.9m. Using the same method as below, 20x PE with a 20% discount for the potential loss of migration related earnings would give a valuation of $4.10.

Disc: Not held

Original Valuation

MA Financial Group is an interesting company. It has an asset management part of the business as well as lending and corporate advisory arms. It has been described as a mini Macquarie Group.

Recently it has been hit with rumours regarding the governments scrapping of the Significant Investor Visa (SIV) which represents a significant part of MAF's Asset Management business.

MAF have themselves stated that Migration related programs are around 37% of the asset management arm of the business although at a recent update there have been significantly more inflows in non migration related funds.

Asset Management also represents around 70% of earnings for MAF and hence by my calculations, migration related funds under management would represent around 20% of earnings.

1H22 (MAF uses a calendar year end) had $20.5m in statutory NPAT. Doubling this and discounting 20% for the potential loss of migration related earnings and then applying a 20x earnings multiple would give a valuation around $3.75.

I believe at this price, the downside risk of losing migration related earnings would be low and the upside would be that SIV programs would continue to operate and MAF would continue to benefit from these earnings.

Disc: Not Held.

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#Bull Case
stale
Last edited one year ago

*Note I hold for reference.

I think the visa linked HNW issue has subsided. The company has been able to pivot increasing FUM by 17% (1.5b). As such I think that future HNW visa linked funds can be seen as a bonus to the fund.

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Valuation of $5.60
stale
Added one year ago

*Note as mentioned previously I am a holder. (Thanks @Boredsaint for following MAF it will give me a more balanced lens to view the results).

Based on their results and continuing growth profile (26% earnings increase in 2022) including different income streams (like Macquarie) allowing them to ride out challenging conditions whilst benefitting from supercharged earnings during ideal environments I have a simple valuation of 20 x earnings of 28c = $5.60 (with no discount).

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#Financials - Updated Earnings
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

MA Financial Group Limited announces upgraded earnings guidance for FY21. Given continued momentum across the Group it is now anticipated that FY21 Underlying earnings per share (EPS) will increase between 30% and 40% on FY20. The previously announced expectation was for a 20% to 30% increase. The strong activity levels experienced in 1H21 have persisted through 2H21.  

Continuing to kick goals! Maybe just maybe these guys really are the next Macquarie! Will need to update the valuation at a later stage and the opportunity to buy between $6.00-7.00 is most likley gone bar a major correction.

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#Financials
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

For those interested these are some numbers from their Annual Presentation: 

REVENUE (underlying)                                      FY2017: 36/71 = 107m                 FY2018: 56/80 = 136m               FY2019: 68/90 = 158m              FY2020: 67/93 = 160m              HY2021: 103*/TBC = TBC

ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT  FY2017: 2.8B                                          FY2018: 3.7B                                 FY2019: 4.9B                                  FY2020: 5.4B                               HY2021: 6.1B*

Look at those first half numbers!!!

 

 

 

 

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#Missed the Pop!
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Disclaimer: I hold in my personal portfolio but missed by 1d (on adding it to my strawman account) the initial pop from 5.40s to 5.90s and then got a bit greedy when it retreated into the 5.50s. 
 

I thought this would trade in the 6.00-7.00 zone (holding around that 29-30Pae ratio) and I could enter at some stage in the low 6s even after results but, today it broke through $8 and there does not seem to be an end insite. At a PE ~37 that's probably a bit high for a finance company (what is high in today's market) but, with EPS growth (not revenue) predictions increasing from 10-20% to 20-30% the potential to be the next Macquarie must be really sinking in and investors can see this continuing to produce significant growth for that PE ratio to stretch out a bit wider. 

I am still looking to double up in my personal portfolio and for an entry on strawman if I feel something else can be replaced but, I need to see at what value this will be. 

In hindsight the writing was on the wall that this was going to re-rate because the earnings upgrade was not a revenue upgrade from 10-20% to 20-30% but, an EPS increase!!! Which, is actually very impressive! For now I will just have to see where it settles for an entry. 

Good luck to those who added to their strawman account. 

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#Missed the Pop!
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Its seems I was one day too late buying it for my Strawman Portfolio and missed the jump (8.6%) today from 5.44 (buy order <5.46) to 5.90. With no official news out that I could find, a please explain may be on the way from the ASX.

However, the price pop potentially confirms that the recent announcement indicating results would be towards the upper range of the 10-20% are probably now confirmed if not even higher. Unless, there is additional news (1st quarter indications) that has leaked or another Strawman member bought up big :).

This is my bad for not pulling the trigger earlier. Still this is a long term buy and hold so based on the results released 18/8 I may have to adjust my buy in or wait for an entry point. Yes I am after a long term hold but, no point giving away free money if there is an opportunity for a better entry. Lets see if they get a please explain tomorrow from the ASX. 

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