This will come as a shock to many (not!) but I wouldnt touch McGrath with a barge pole. Still, I couldn't help scan their results for some confirmation bias.
Here's some cherry picked stats:
- Number of properties sold down 20% over the year (despite a 16% increase in office numbers)
- Average selling price across their network down 3.7%. More broadly, house prices down 5% from a year ago.
- Revenue down 27%, NPAT down 47%
An AFR article today quotes the founder John McGrath saying:
- The lower end of the market could fall by up to 5 per cent over the next three to six months as some homeowners struggle to meet the sharp increase in mortgage repayments.
- I think there are still some risks because a large number of people with fixed mortgages are resetting their interest rates from 2 per cent to 7 per cent. It’s already happening, so I don’t think we’re over the mortgage pain necessarily
- Sadly, we’ve seen some distressed selling in the last couple of months. It’s more anecdotal and the number is still relatively small, but I speak to many of our franchisees on a weekly basis and they are telling me that they’re seeing three or more distressed sales starting to pop up on their books.
Of course, he thinks things will improve. "Strong migration and stabilising interest rates would continue to support demand"
“If we’re looking 12 months ahead, I think we will see the new cycle start around the end of this financial year, and we should be in pretty good shape thereafter.”
We'll see I guess. Pretty sure the powers that be will throw everything they can at housing to avoid any material selling. It really is too big to fail at this point.
I wrote this in March. Naturally, prices have gone UP since then.
